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02-03-2017 12:57 AM
i looked at the NOAA long range forecasts......i keep seeing above normal temps and "equal" chances on precip....but very
little, if any in the above or slightly above precip.
soo....i guess the question is....on the corn, what would an "average" year project.......the same on beans.
but the question.....will the newer technology, such as the "moisture stress tolerent" hybrids going to do better, and
will we see more planted this year, due to a chance of less rain ?
i will admit, i don't know much about them.....although i am familar with their development, and physiology.....i've seen them
in our neighborhood, and will admit the plant stays green when it is dry, when others are turning brown, it's still green, i don't
know how that relates to yeild, other than at least the plant is alive and has a chance, compaired to the brown ones.
i know there was talk of using them on limited irrigation.......
02-03-2017 09:22 AM
You guys won't believe a USDA market projection, which is simply extending a line through a bunch of points into the future, and you are looking at NOAA long range weather? Weather is an unbelievablly complicated and complex system that is infamously hard to predict and we're looking into the summer?
Maybe we DON'T WANT to bellieve USDA and we WANT to believe NOAA. Both because they fit our preferences, not because their science is any better.
The drought models, if one believes them, don't support Elwynn Taylor's concerns about a corn belt drought - yet. Maybe the models will change. The outlook is for dry in north Texas and eastern Oklahoma and the middle of Missouri. Getting better or at least no worse in the Southeast. Sounds like good weather to me in Iowa. Iffy in Meade, KS. Not so good in Tulsa, OK.
Admittedly, it's easy in Iowa. Corn and soybeans and hope or pray. In the fringe areas, one actually has to make a calculated decision based on imperfect and insufficient information. Tough job.
Better hybrids? We hear a lot of talk. I don't remember seeing anything like a scientific study but they are probably out there if one knew where to look. Maybe I'll ask around.
02-03-2017 03:22 PM
Jim you hit it spot with the USDA vs NOAA comment. As someone who sells seed, yes i believe in the technology that is being incorporated into the seed. But if its one thing i've learned from old timers "It doesn't matter how good the genetics and technology is, we still need rain to make a crop"
02-03-2017 06:45 PM
i haven't read what the fellow from iowa st or nebraska have said yet, but if they are thinking a "drought" or "prolonged dry spell",
i think some of the noaa stuff might be in agreement, at least it's saying "its possible", due to the "equal chance".
02-03-2017 09:56 PM
Dutcher seems to have a handle on the weather forecast to some what of MIGHT , COULD , MAY happen - looking back I haven't found any forcast's that predicted '''above normal record'' precipt in California , Oregon , Washington and the rest of the inter mountain states ?
Wet to our West - high plains next -
If some one can find those archive forcast's _ I stand corrected ---
02-04-2017 07:41 AM
Wettest since 95 is the headline about California I saw.
Hope it's not like that here.
95 & 96 were prevented planting years for me,
There is NO NORMAL in any fringe area ... just an average of extremes.