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04-19-2017 09:01 AM
200 bpa @ $4 is $800/acre. Think we can get that? Can we get along if we do?
200 bpa is pretty sure for many of us but it's still a good number to me. I hope for it but don't count on it. $4 corn is possible if one does some creative marketing but may be less possible from here on out. If we get another chance at $4 corn, and I'm ready if we do with sell orders in place, maybe we'd better take it.
04-19-2017 09:22 AM
Answer is "We'll see"........
If we keep playing the roller coaster game...... drop the corn price to $3.00 and below, (which we did with a flare)
Then have to have a war scare or a major "sunami weather event" to suddenly rocket it up to $4 and blow out the basis theft.......which we all want to see.
Then expenses will go up 25% and we will have gained nothing. But wow it would be a good story.... and get my congressman back in office.
Hopefully the farm economy is so bad now that we won't be able to do anything but pay off debt for three years..... that would help hold expenses a little.
And the same old question will be here.................. Do we buck the trend by selling at $4. when our costs are rising again...
Yes scale up moves in low volumes is always good. And the most fun we have is complaining about those $4 sales when the price hits $4.80........ and the expenses hit $4.75...
04-19-2017 03:11 PM
04-19-2017 06:11 PM - edited 04-19-2017 06:12 PM
I have averaged 200+ exactly twice.......2013 and 2014. The last two years it's been in the 160's. 200 is not "pretty sure" here. We are fortunate to have three ethanol plants within 35 miles or so. Our basis here is not the nightmare-ish numbers that is seen elsewhere. Still, most guys around here take nothing for granted. Nobody adds the crop up before it's in the bin.
04-19-2017 10:37 PM
145 bu. average at $3.50 makes $507 gross. It would be nice to hit 160 bu. average, but I haven't done it yet. Our basis has been pretty strong lately, and with more livestock being raised in this area, I think basis for corn may get stronger.
04-20-2017 12:02 AM
I think there will be better pricing opportunities later this summer, but to get that needed "$4 corn and $10 beans cash for new crop" there will be plenty monkeys running out the exit doors at somewhat lower than needed prices. $9.50 beans and $3.75 corn will get a lot of takers as beaten up as everyone has been, so it probably won`t have to get to those subsistence levels.
But everyone`s swinging for the bleachers one more year on yield...and you have to, the fixed costs are what they are whether you raise 250 bushels or no bushels, which results in us cutting our own throats. When you got the Magnum 380 and the 36 row planter, the payments are the same whether it`s out working or sitting in the shed. So, the only chance is throw an extra $50 in fertilizer out there and hope it results in an extra 50 bushel yield.