09-30-2012 01:15 PM
Continued bullish corn tonight and a weakening bean market?
That's my guess given the limit up in corn friday and the retracement from the highs for beans?
Probably another bounce in corn and then a sell off?
Corn crop plus bean crop @ these prices is over $1000 per acre gross average! When is enough enough?
09-30-2012 02:16 PM
I am not gonna fall into the guilt trap-------I am still pretty close to the cost of production figures and the continuing inflation outlook.
But for different reasons I am probably with your assesment.--------tonight is very interesting and will set the tone for the week.
Chart wise we have been in a trading range for a long time and that will be hard to break out of on the top side on this harvest wreck-------yet a gradually stronger market into spring is possible for corn. Lets say 5 months to gain 30 cents after this report.
((if you see any artillery shells coming west out of Missouri, please give me a warning, you have a good lookout position))
Second point, If those of us harvesting were as nervous as I think we were last week, a retracement to the 8+ position is going to draw a fair amount of pricing in corn. Probably your point-------Most of us have not seen these prices in a lifetime and will not let them pass by more than once. There will always be the stubborn contrarist baby boomer who will save some corn no matter what just to thumb his nose at the world, but most of the bushels in the 9b harvested will have expenses or future expenses chasing them-------time to let the non producers assume the rest of the risk on corn. IMO
Beans--------- all depends of how much that export announcement on friday is already in the market. That was a sizeable sale to go along with a good first three weeks of this "year". I wonder if that got figured in friday.
Pretty good guesses I would say---------we will see. will be an interesting trade day beginning this evening.
09-30-2012 03:54 PM
im not sure what will happen monday but im with u bean and corn guys that if u get to $8 corn and $18 beans i will sell wheat and canola as well.....not gonna let it slip away again......when the market topped two weeks ago on friday all the analysts said its gotta go higher it cant come down! well when thea ALL say the same thing it can only go down!
09-30-2012 04:03 PM
I got the bird in the hand complex and will probably pull the trigger. I don't mind being wrong with a pocket full of money.
I know i'm not going to get all there is anyway. Good payday for me and uncle sam and they need the money to make up for those with terrible m crops. I don't like mediocre crops too much and how troubling it must be to have terrible crops.
09-30-2012 05:31 PM
corn could find resist around 776. if it blows through this level, 777-780 will become support going into Oct report. could see beans working their way towards 1685. Re: corn, farmdocdaily article indicated 1.2 b harvested before Sep 1. the implications from stocks report are that most of this is already in end users hands. so, the 9-10b crop is 1b less before the year begins. kinda makes me go Hmmmmmmmm.
09-30-2012 05:41 PM
better make you go more than HMMM..............thats a huge deal.........
how many harvested acres either with a batwing, chopper, or combine are in the number on Friday.........
I WHOLE HECK OF A LOT.............
corn has a fight on its hands for supply both in physcial and 2013 acres...........hold on tight......
soya.........don't think the production number is there..........USDA is close, but the trade is thinkin they are too low..........and CHINA is buying boatloads still.........I think we are closing in on 80% of USDA export target for current marketing year.........WHICH JUST STARTED..........
09-30-2012 06:04 PM
thankyou, it IS a HUGE deal!
i can certainly understand producers wanting to unload what they thought they missed above 8 in corn. i mean, how often do you get a bird in the hand twice during harvest.....errrrr, entire mktg yr?
however, corn usage during last qtr was probably 56-60% more than stocks report indicated - great rationing job! & U.S. is the only bean store in town until next spring and we already have 70% new crop sold???????????? so, if beans have put in a low, as seems to be ageed on by most, those sales won't be cancelled. a tight squeeze on last 30% of bean inventory could produce quite the spectacle between now & Brazil harvest.