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Veteran Advisor
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Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

We are a long way from writing the final chapter on this years crop, as far as price goes.  Doom and gloom abounds - yes, we must be getting close to the bottom.   And yes, its the farmers in Maryland's fault for growing ALL that corn this year.  And how about all those boats bringing corn into the midwest plugging the Ohio River system with barges.  Maybe they should've kept those barges there so they could now ship corn back out from whence it came. 

 

Monday morning quarterbacks make it look so easy, oh, you should've done this, you should've done that.  Maybe so.  But how much money was left on the table when farmers were selling ahead at $5.00 (or less) and corn went to $8.50?  I started to say harvest, bin, and go on vacation when the price on the board dropped below $5.00, and then there was a .60 cent basis dropping the price to $4.40.  Yes, there is a big crop, but there are still problems with some of the crop, or it wouldn't still be in the fields.  Northern WI, MN, and from what I'm hearing ND still has a lot of corn standing.  Why?  Because the moisture is still 29-30%  and these farmers are looking at what it's going to take to dry this stuff down, and asking themselves "does it pay?".  By the time you take another .60+ in drying costs, plus discounts for low test weights, then storage, it doesn't appear that there is much left.  But leaving this stuff out in the fields is not the answer either.  Maybe in some areas.  But for most it's a poor choice to let Mother Nature do the drying.  Her drying costs are more than biting the bullet and taking it to town.  Over where my farm was, they are just now thinking about firing up the dryers.  And I'm glad I'm not the one doing the drying this year.  Fire and ice are not a good combination when it comes to drying....been there, done that - it's not a lot of fun.  Nothing is to be gained by letting the crop in the field any longer in my book.

 

No, the final chapter is not yet written.  The corn in the bin is safe, it's an asset waiting to be cashed.  We have another 9 months of maketing to go through before (maybe) this corn needs to hit the market, and another whole season to battle through as to what is out there for a crop.  But at least when the crop is in the bin, you know WHAT you have to sell.  Let's look at my farm friends over in WI with the corn still sitting in the fields.  They are still obligated to fulfill those contracts that they made.  The price is fairly low this year, but they are still responsible for getting it to their merchant that they sold to.  Adding to additional cost there.  And the time spent finding the corn, arranging for the trucking, and everything else that goes with it.  You guys in Iowa and Ill can talk big - your always assured some kind of crop.  And you can look down your noses at those of us whose fore fathers didn't pick a piece of ground farther south to homestead.  My family were dairy farmers, and Central WI was the right place to be until he 1980's.   Things change.  And as our world warms, those "up Nort" will have there day in the sun again.

 

Jen

 

 

Senior Contributor
Posts: 235
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

You are drinking the Koolaid Jen. Those of us who did have some corn contracted in the 5's or 6's also sold a lot of corn in the 7's and 8's. you and MT would like to make it seem as though we sold all of our crop in 2011 and 2012 for $5 ahead of time. Not so. A percentage was priced at lower levels not the whole crop. Tell me how a screwed up by ending up with an average around $7 on my 2012 crop. How does that compare to the guys that forward contracted nothing sold some of the $8 gravy off the combine and then put the rest of it in storage and rode it down to $5?
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Senior Contributor
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎12-29-2011

Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

Holy cow. Your guys obsession with this dude borders on some sort of psychological affliction. Probably worse than the one he deals with. This site and the other used to contain good information. Now they are absolutely worthless with this constant bull/bear whose unit is bigger measuring contest. I made the mistake of checking in today from the plow tractor. Ill go back to just watching twitter where the information is at least relative to the markets. Have fun trolling MT and others. Ps I wouldn't worry about the farmers who have grain unpriced in their bins today. Chances are they are debt free and sitting just fine, in fact waiting for this cycle lower to present opportunities.
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

You're missing the point of what I'm saying.  Selling something you don't have is a good way to lose your shirt.  When I farmed, yes, I sold ahead.  I did the upscale selling thing.  But over in Central WI, since we were selling mostly to end users, these guys didn't want to buy when the price was high, and would drop the basis to a buck, or not even offer a forward contract which happened to me when prices got above $7.00.  Yes, I could have shipped it to the river - for 50 cents, if they had a turn around load to bring back.  The point is that there is no "one size fits all" marketing plan.  What workds for you guys is Ill I will thell you oes not work where my farm was in WI.  It's like no till.  May work great where you have the heat units - in Central WI, it was hit and miss because of not being able to get the soil warmed up in the spring.  I'm not disagreeing with you or your marketing plan.  But you need to be aware also that selling a bunch ahead is not the right choice for many of us.  And I have to say the I lost more money marketing ahead than I did by just leaving the corn in the bin, and marketing it after I knew what I had.  And that's what I'm saying here.  For those of us on these "fringe" areas, it's how to survive.  What looked good this past summer at $5.00 in another 6 months may not look so good.  We still have a long way to go.  That's what I'm saying....there's no reason to sell right now in my book.  Hasn't since crop hit $5.00 or less.  But it's easy for me to say.  I don't have farm bills to pay, and I don't have a crop of crappy corn in a bin that I have to babysit this winter.  I'm officially retired (for now) that my job at the elevator is completed for the year.  And I'm going to enjoy myself after I get done with taxes.  Trust me - I'll be adding something back into the nations coffers this year.

 

Jen

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Registered: ‎04-08-2013
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

Steve, you should start your own "marketing academy" called, "How to sell at the top of the market no matter what your marketing plan is". Then a follow up course called, "It doesn't matter if you miss the absolute top in price because you'll have a huge crop anyway". It seems you have it figured out. Hold grain one year to hit the top. Sell it a year early next crop to hit the top. I only wish I had your marketing ability. Sarcasm off.........
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Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

Selling ahead has been profitable over the last 30 years. I get the fact that it doesn't work in every area but it works for me and I have never lost my shirt yet. I am still farming.
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

Steve, then get off our case on those of us that do the best with what we are dealt.  You really have no idea of the challenges we face in Northen WI when it comes to growing and marketing a crop.  I'm glad that you have a technique that works.  If it works for you, then great.  But don't be telling tose that haven't sold that they've missed the boat - heck, the boat is still putting on fuel.  And every year, we hear the "we're going to $2.00 crap."   Get off it.  Demand is strong.  These extra bushels will get eaten up quickly at the wholesale prices we have going on in corn at least.  There are some goofy things going on in the world right now weather wise, or, should I say, there CONTINUE to be some goofy things going on.  There is no huge crop guarentee anywhere in the world right now. and if we are so fortunate to grow a huge crop, well then good for us.  All 7 billion of us have a chance to live for another year.  We better hope we don't have a out and out disaster year anymore.  But maybe then we wouldn't be throwing away 40% of what we do produce.

 

Jen

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Registered: ‎05-16-2010
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

Geez IllinoisSteve, sorry to bring you into this?!  If your not bullish on this site you gotta take some darts I guess.  The thing is for all those that talk crap about those that sold "to soon" in previous years is that those $5 dollar sales (and up) were profitable.  This year IF you are sitting with crop unpriced you are likely still profitable IF you include your revenue ins. check.  My question is:  what your plan?  If you have crop in the bin and on storage in town and buying inputs for 2014 and don't have any of it sold, what's your plan?  The only thing that "could" be bullish enough to bounce us in a significant way would be weather next summer.  So, we hope for a weather rally.  We want poor weather everywhere except our farm?  As for forward contracting, it has historically been advantageous on a portion.  It is a way to reduce risk along with your crop insurance.  I have been biting my tongue all summer listening to Jen talk down the Minnesota crop.  She is correct in her backyard, but much of MN is/was very good.  I see the bulls on here are hanging there hat on demand now?  Ethanol demand under pressure, the recent report added 100 million to feed usage with the smallest cattle herd in ages and no major swine growth and so far exports are decent.  Demand is up and will likely keep looking for prices to entice more demand AT LOWER PRICES?!  Don't fight the trend!

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

How about we see the map of the rest of the nation like was shown us a few days ago of Ill?  If that map exists for Ill, I'm sure the same thing exists for the rest of the Midwest.  Let's see the rest of the story.  And you might as well put Maryland in there just for grins.  You bear guys sound a whole lot like there is no tomorrow with our prices.  Maybe you should've sold the farm when I did.

 

Jen

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Re: Whatever happened to the "peak corn", "12 billion is gone", "don't sell

If I recall, you bears started "throwing darts" with this thread. The last few years the gurus have been saying sell sell sell, way in advance, and have missed out on a lot of money. I guess this time they were right. So far anyway........ As for me. I have done pretty well the last few years. This year, not so much. So far anyway........ Still a long way to go to the finish line. But, I suppose the next story will be record crop on record acres for 2014. Of course that is after a record crop on record acres in SA. It never gets old guys.