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Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,865
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Wheat -- think about it.

[ Edited ]

Want a real look at the value of wheat......... when corn and milo are at a very low price   This sort of shocks a kansas boy

The first chart shows some recent history ------- but look at the acres planted this last fall 23.3 million for harvest in 2017

 THE SMALLEST NUMBER OF ACRES PLANTED TO WINTER WHEAT SINCE 1909..that was when usda was projecting 32M acres.

Now the number has dropped to 23.3 million acres........ not counting the winter kill numbers to come...

 

http://www.bakingbusiness.com/articles/news_home/Purchasing/2017/01/Farmers_seed_the_smallest_area.a...

 

The stuff the bears sit on.....and will not report...  

 

 

 

 

1-19-16 USDA Winter Wheat seedings.png

 

 

hrw planted.png

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,055
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

you would "think" this would be positive news for wheat...........

 

but the real shocker could be the "harvested acres".....talk here is, might be grazed out, or tore up and planted to something else,

depending on the price.

 

i guess i should have kept up my contrary attitude, and planted the same amount of wheat i always did......but EVERYONE was

saying not too.......i cut by 50%

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 854
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: Wheat -- think about it.

accepting responsibility for your decisions is one of the steps to better marketing

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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 147
Registered: ‎09-09-2010
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

up here in Spring Wheat country of ND more corn and beans and less canola. altho canola is an oilseed its expensive to grow compared to beans so acres will drop of both

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,865
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

All told, I think there is some market shock coming for wheat.... But I think it might be a bright side for the future.

 

It might be, as cheapo related, that the producers have finally responded to the markets........... instead of planting according to their "perception" of congressional assistance.

 

We keep talking about how poor the programs are and how we want a free market,  well we have to participate in that market and stop asking congress to skew the market.

 

 

It appears that we have been willing , or have had no choice but to lower acres dramatically in wheat......... I don't think corn will be far behind... The economics are going to cut corn acres this year and the markets are begging for it...

Senior Contributor
Posts: 401
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

"accepting responsibility for your decisions is one of the steps to better marketing'

 

I like marketing more than any other part of farming.  It makes the blood pump.  Saying "this is MY trade, MY decision is in my opinion the first step to taking ownership of marketing.  One time I said to my wife, "I lost $5,000 on the Board of Trade."  She said, "Don't tell me that.  I don't want to know that."  I've taken her at her word and the only time I talk with her about trades is when we go over the income tax.

 

Marketing is very educational, but the tuition is always in real money and sometimes it's pretty high.  It is never helpful to blame others for one's own trade decisions.  Only by saying, "I made that mistake" will one do something postive about changing it.

 

Likewise, I never turn over marketing to anyone else. 

 

There are plenty of times when I grumble and gripe and whine about a trade, but it is always MY trade.

Advisor
Posts: 528
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

The talk "here" is that irrigated wheat acres are going to beans, and dryland wheat may go to corn.  dryland corn was a homerun here last year, so it will probably strike out this year.  There may be a little more fallow than normal this year on dryland?  But  the irrigated acres will get planted to something.  Maybe more forage crops?  But a lot of guys don't want to mess with livestock, and hay is real cheap too if your growing it as a cash crop. 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,055
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

hw...interesting you mentioned canola is loosin up north......down here, there has been a push on about maybe

starting canola production.....they have meetings, extension doing test plots, etc...etc....

 

you know anymore, i'm starting to ask myself......just what is there profit in.....corn..cost too much to plant....beans so so but outlook

on price makes what little hair i have left on my head start to fall out, wheat, nothing special now, hay, used to be able to make

a little, sunflowers, not with $325 a bag seed, milo, maybe, if you don't have to put up with SCA....now your telling me canola

isn't the best......what's left ?

 

i've been saying this for the past few weeks.......we need a new crop !

 

even the mary jane growers are hollering, in the legal states, they are saying there is very little profit now, but was at first.

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,865
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

in sw there are some irrig corn acres going to beans.  With the new crop pricing in the 10 range and corn at 3.13..... it looks like a way to lower input costs without loosing any more than normal........ Not talking the whole farm but probably 20% more than normal and on some marginal land and/or water.

 

News show had aireal photos of dozers pushing trees off hillsides in California to put up more greenhouses for marry J.    That market will be over produced quickly...

Contributor
Posts: 11
Registered: ‎12-28-2011
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Re: Wheat -- think about it.

Spot on Ray.

 

Talk is cheap, action gains traction. Gets a little old listening to the moaning, groaning whoa is me bunch..  A lot of wasted energy that woud provide positive reults if the energy was used in a productive positive manner