- Agriculture.com Community
- Announcements & Forum Help
- Farm Business
- Young & Beginning Farmers
- Cattle Talk
- Crop Talk
- Hog Talk
- Machinery Talk
- Machinery Marketplace
- Shops, buildings and bins
- Ask the SF Engineman!
- Computers & more
- Precision Agriculture
- People & Rural Life
- Ag Forum
- Women In Ag
- Agriculture.com Blogs
- Your Farm in the Future
- Women in Ag: Lisa Foust Prater
- Women in Ag: Brenda Frketich
- Women in Ag: Anne Miller
- Women in Ag: Jennifer Dewey
- Women in Ag: Talkin' Turkey with Lara Durben
- Women in Ag: Heather Lifsey Barnes
01-13-2017 05:29 PM - edited 01-13-2017 05:34 PM
Want a real look at the value of wheat......... when corn and milo are at a very low price This sort of shocks a kansas boy
The first chart shows some recent history ------- but look at the acres planted this last fall 23.3 million for harvest in 2017
THE SMALLEST NUMBER OF ACRES PLANTED TO WINTER WHEAT SINCE 1909..that was when usda was projecting 32M acres.
Now the number has dropped to 23.3 million acres........ not counting the winter kill numbers to come...
The stuff the bears sit on.....and will not report...
01-13-2017 06:43 PM
you would "think" this would be positive news for wheat...........
but the real shocker could be the "harvested acres".....talk here is, might be grazed out, or tore up and planted to something else,
depending on the price.
i guess i should have kept up my contrary attitude, and planted the same amount of wheat i always did......but EVERYONE was
saying not too.......i cut by 50%
01-14-2017 10:25 AM
All told, I think there is some market shock coming for wheat.... But I think it might be a bright side for the future.
It might be, as cheapo related, that the producers have finally responded to the markets........... instead of planting according to their "perception" of congressional assistance.
We keep talking about how poor the programs are and how we want a free market, well we have to participate in that market and stop asking congress to skew the market.
It appears that we have been willing , or have had no choice but to lower acres dramatically in wheat......... I don't think corn will be far behind... The economics are going to cut corn acres this year and the markets are begging for it...
01-14-2017 01:03 PM
"accepting responsibility for your decisions is one of the steps to better marketing'
I like marketing more than any other part of farming. It makes the blood pump. Saying "this is MY trade, MY decision is in my opinion the first step to taking ownership of marketing. One time I said to my wife, "I lost $5,000 on the Board of Trade." She said, "Don't tell me that. I don't want to know that." I've taken her at her word and the only time I talk with her about trades is when we go over the income tax.
Marketing is very educational, but the tuition is always in real money and sometimes it's pretty high. It is never helpful to blame others for one's own trade decisions. Only by saying, "I made that mistake" will one do something postive about changing it.
Likewise, I never turn over marketing to anyone else.
There are plenty of times when I grumble and gripe and whine about a trade, but it is always MY trade.
01-14-2017 03:07 PM
The talk "here" is that irrigated wheat acres are going to beans, and dryland wheat may go to corn. dryland corn was a homerun here last year, so it will probably strike out this year. There may be a little more fallow than normal this year on dryland? But the irrigated acres will get planted to something. Maybe more forage crops? But a lot of guys don't want to mess with livestock, and hay is real cheap too if your growing it as a cash crop.
01-14-2017 04:05 PM
hw...interesting you mentioned canola is loosin up north......down here, there has been a push on about maybe
starting canola production.....they have meetings, extension doing test plots, etc...etc....
you know anymore, i'm starting to ask myself......just what is there profit in.....corn..cost too much to plant....beans so so but outlook
on price makes what little hair i have left on my head start to fall out, wheat, nothing special now, hay, used to be able to make
a little, sunflowers, not with $325 a bag seed, milo, maybe, if you don't have to put up with SCA....now your telling me canola
isn't the best......what's left ?
i've been saying this for the past few weeks.......we need a new crop !
even the mary jane growers are hollering, in the legal states, they are saying there is very little profit now, but was at first.
01-14-2017 05:19 PM
in sw there are some irrig corn acres going to beans. With the new crop pricing in the 10 range and corn at 3.13..... it looks like a way to lower input costs without loosing any more than normal........ Not talking the whole farm but probably 20% more than normal and on some marginal land and/or water.
News show had aireal photos of dozers pushing trees off hillsides in California to put up more greenhouses for marry J. That market will be over produced quickly...
01-14-2017 07:59 PM
Spot on Ray.
Talk is cheap, action gains traction. Gets a little old listening to the moaning, groaning whoa is me bunch.. A lot of wasted energy that woud provide positive reults if the energy was used in a productive positive manner