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Frequent Contributor
ag-?
Posts: 77
Registered: ‎05-11-2011
0

Wheat

Last 3 weeks have seen nothing but down market and yet we still have large portions of world experiencing conditions that could further cut wheat supplies. Is this slide based on supply side of wheat or it more melt down in financial markets trying to figure out where world economy heading and where money is going to be invested. Also middle east conflicts having effect on buying of wheat

from us. I guess i thought we would see some movement by now in price of wheat before spring. I think were heading into poorer growing year for wheat than last year because there's no excess moisture for this crop to fall back on. If anything it looks like were heading for another year of drought and this year the final yield numbers could be much more effected. I would appreciate any thoughts where we head from here.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,741
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Wheat

My opinion for what it's worth is that the non Ag. Money is coming out of the market before report day.  They will jump back in at 11:01 on Friday morning as the report is read.  He who has the fastest computer will come out on top.

Frequent Contributor
R John
Posts: 34
Registered: ‎11-12-2010
0

Re: Wheat

I farm in extreme west central KS. Last year the crop was above average as it went into a pretty good moisture profile and there was some moisture over the winter. I didn't have any wheat last year but I halped a neighbor with harvest and we cut some 50 bu/ac dryland. Thei fall I didn't plant wheat due to the dought and those that did don't have any crop showing in the field due to drought. Last year was 50% above normal production. This year it looks like 0 production.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,135
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Wheat

China and Egypt in the US wheat market. Prices for milling wheat in some of China's coastal cities is hitting $430/tn.
Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 425
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Wheat

Spoiler
 

      Charts are reliable as far as they have to have their repititious electriocardiograph movement,As far as real fundimental wheat goes,we are in for a potential ride upwards. You have to get out of thw box with all the grain commods and realize demand is more of a possitive than weather happennings.Weather happennings happen every year(almost) but we are actualy havving a real proplem keeping up with demand,there is a new saying in the countryside) it;s called,the new norm.

Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 425
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Wheat

     I am going to have to pay $600.00 ton for spring SWW seed stock,(the new norm)

Veteran Contributor
NABFarmer
Posts: 98
Registered: ‎08-21-2010
0

Re: Wheat

Ray, could be worse I'm paying $641 or $17.50 per bushel.
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,741
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Wheat

I paid $20.50/Bushel for certified & treated HRW wheat seed last fall.  Seems like your prices are right in line.  What am I missing?

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,267
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Wheat

R John,
South of u 2011 was this bad. This year the area involved in your description is very large. It really looks bad for wht.
sw
Senior Contributor
pritchh
Posts: 495
Registered: ‎10-18-2010
0

Re: Wheat

Anytime there seems to be worry over this area or that, an annual event.

 

Yes, things need to improve for HRW areas, but odds are   ,,,,,  2/3 they will just on ramdoness, ?

 

These are HIGH prices, and round the world incite production. 

 

Mkt may turn as many here think   but if SRW didn't get a record swap of buying vs corn prices, where would

SRW stks to use be? Alreay they are very suitable, near 50% as I recall.

 

vs history,, 50%, yells even in this age, 4.50-5$ chi futures  ?

 

I may be good and wrong.