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Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010

White Flag

I am waving the white flag.  I need to quit reading comments on  stories about the drought.  The stupidity of people never ceases to amaze me.  The price of corn is the root of all evil.  Ethanol is the root of all evil.  GMO is the root of all evil.  Without Ethanol we couldn't hardly give corn away.   Now we finally have a market that respects our product and everyone cries they want the rules changed.  The subsidies are gone for Ethanol and not oil, but that still isn't enough.   People seem to react instead of act.  Everyone is trying to push their political agenda.  Capitalism by bribery of government officials.  I see where the Walmart Family's net worth is equal to the bottom 40 some percent of all Americans.  There are numbers out there that suggest that over 40 percent of Walmart shoppers are paying with government welfare cards.  Something is wrong with that picture.

No way America solves it problems when it doesn't even know what the real problems are.  Not sure how to find out what the problems are with the hyper fed web agenda and 24 hour spin news cycle.


This year is not panic.  Next year, if the drought continues, might be.  The Black Swan will be drought, government choosing between not throwing money to the masses or printing to wild inflation.   The collapse of the pensions will be the bomb that starts the rock slide. 

 

Lets talk about risk.  I still hold old crop.  It looked like a couple of months ago that might be looking at 4 dollar corn for taking that risk of storing and holding.  So, since there is a really problem with supply, I see no problem with a BIG reward in price for taking that risk.  I know no one would have wanted something done if I got 4.  So same rules should apply if I get 10.

 

These are great prices for corn and soybeans.  Should you sell?  My advice, only if you have old crop on hand.  

There is a silver lining.  If the decision was made to stop ethanol for a while, I think the benefits of ethanol would become very evident to all.

So. IA
Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 9,809
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: White Flag

Yes indeed you are deserving of such good fortune.

 

The next question posed, are you going to delay payment until 2013 when you have less grain to sell?

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 1,974
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: White Flag

According to a trader specializing in Asia, if soy yields fall below 38 bu/ac we run out of inventory - before Brazil comes on line at current usage levels. 

 

Just trying to help here.

Senior Contributor
jec22
Posts: 410
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
0

Re: White Flag

I will take the cash when I sell.   Working on going totally debt free, this year or next.  Not afraid to give the government some of it.  Wish I had been smart enough to by land a few years ago.  Always prepay and equipment that can be updated.  Have been told that insurance checks will not be coming until April of 2013.  They way we are cooking the crop this week and next, that will be a big part of the income from this year.  It is getting ugly, ugly, out in parts of Iowa corn country.  Corn is firing.  Which means it is cannibalizing the plant to try to save the ear...that only works for a while.

 

So. IA
Senior Contributor
k-289
Posts: 1,662
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: White Flag

Insurance  checks  when - 2013  - interesting ---

Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 388
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: White Flag

Beans are below 38 they better start worrying.
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,429
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: White Flag

jec22,  Your original post here was one of the best ever that I have read.......You, (unlike so many folks, even some on  these internet farm forums)  get it!

Nobody and I mean NOBODY (except maybe Willie Nelson.....all right, I'm kidding here.), cared about the farmer and our struggles back in the 80s & 90s. The reward of holding old grain into this has certainly been worth the risk.    I too will be paying down debt and will be smiling when I hand that check over to the banker.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
GoredHusker
Posts: 1,709
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: White Flag

The insurance check dilema sucks because they make you declare the entire indemnity payment at a time.  Yes, one can defer it.  However, if one defers it they have to defer the entire amount.  This sucks for the ones that space grain sales out over two tax years. 

Senior Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,324
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: White Flag

Just remember these "good" prices are THEIR offer not OUR price. Delievered on a twoish week old contract of beans this morning.  Was 15 minutes too late getting in this morning to get $17.00 for beans this time. Only got $16.98 a bu for the over run.

 

Is there blood in the water?

 

BTW Jed +1 I would give you 2 if I could one for the general as I did and one for getting rid of debt...thats when the real money is made and it gets way easier.

60% of the time, it works every time.


"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Contributor
Farmerjoe79
Posts: 388
Registered: ‎04-02-2012
0

Re: White Flag

You should feel guilty that you sold beans that high. Shame on you;(