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Senior Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,502
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

I just read a very interesting piece from Iowa State that explains one view of why we had better corn yield in some areas than we'd have expected if we looked back at '88 as an example.

I posted a short note on it in Crop Talk.

The explanation makes sense and is a little scarey.  We may well not dodge the next bullet, so using '12 as a model for the next dry year in marketing decision may be fraught with peril.

 

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Crop-Talk/Why-We-Missed-A-88-Style-Yield-Bust/td-p/266901

Frequent Contributor
floydboy
Posts: 30
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

2012 national corn yields (as per the latest USDA guess) were 78% of the 1960-2012 trend.

 

1988 national corn yields were 75% of the 1960-2012 trend.

 

With that comparison in mind...did we really "dodge a bullet" this year?

 

If August of this year would have been as hot and as dry as August of 1988 was, we may have reached the 75%-of-trend level that we saw in 1988.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,329
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

"According to the meteorological service Metsul, some of their long term models are indicating that the waters in the Pacific may actually cool enough for the reemergence of a mild La Nina early next year. If that occurred, it could result in deteriorating crop prospects for southern Brazil because neutral conditions or a La Nina generally increases the chances of dryer than normal weather in southern Brazil."

 

still time to fill the profile...........but generally speaking the top foot has some moisture...........powder the next 6 feet..........it will not take a 2012 style weather pattern to have some real issues............and if we cycle right back into a 2012 cycle............88 will look subdued...........

 

180 here we come............

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

Jim, irrigation in fringe areas, questionable drought in the central and north central cornbelt (i.e. Iowa, Minnesota and North Dakota) and improved corn genetics will make the 2012 drought less of an impact than 1988.

Senior Contributor
Blacksandfarmer
Posts: 897
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

The two droughts really can't be compared. In my county alone nearly 130 irrigation pivots went up last winter and spring. The same fields that yielded 40 bu corn in 1988 went 240 bu this year under pivot.

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,257
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

thanks, Jim.

the concept here could be an implication of '88 like planting conditions next spring if recharge is not sufficient.....and looking at NOAA's long range forecasts......not looking so stellar.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,638
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

I agree with blacksand,  He points out the expansion of irrigation since 1988.  I would add that the usage and demand has expanded quite a bit since 1988, probably making 2012 a more extensive event.  

The drought of 2011-12 is more extensive over a bigger area than 1988-------- at least that is how I read the comparable drought maps of a few weeks ago.

 

http://community.agriculture.com/t5/Farm-Business/Historical-Drought-Maps/m-p/215705

sw
Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010

Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

I think irrigation, and moisture saving practices should get the lion's share of the credit.  From the dust bowl, and even the droughts of the 50s, how did  you farm?   You either had weeds choke out the crop, or you clean-tilled your field.

Now, there is burndown of summer fallow, instead of clean till, and no-till or minimum till planting, instead of moldboard plowing, which gave us 10-30 BPA dryland corn, instead of zero.  Then, there is the irrigation, which raised the yields an easy 120-150 BPA compared to what there would have been with no irrigation.

Advisor
hardnox604008
Posts: 5,518
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

Thought it was- national yield hit below the lower trendline drawn parallel to trend off '88. Had speculated last winter that an '88 type outcome would probably be around 130.

 

http://nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/graphics/cornyld.pdf

 

 

 

As noted at the time (true also of the positive '88 yield surprises) when corn goes into dry soil with little compaction and it is dry early so that roots head deep- it will amaze you how much stress it can take. Of course that assumes soils with enough depth to hold some moisture and that isn't true in all soils even in the same field. Even the best and deepest will eventually give it up.

 

 

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason."

J.K. Galbraith
Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,123
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Why '12 Was Not An '88 Style Yield Bust

in the last 11 months we have gotten 9.63 inches of percipitation.  Just thought I would throw it out there.