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Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,657
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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bean Talk

when you find these two statements in the same article ya gotta shake your head...

 

"U.S. farmers are taking advantage of a surge in soybean prices and have sold ahead up to half what they expect to harvest this year,"

"There is no publicly available data on forward sales by U.S. farmers"

 

 

But the question is there "Will there be a big switch on acres to beans in 2017?   Forward contracting is an indicator and it seems to be the only activity going on in 2017 crop marketing so far.

 

There is a little talk of pricing corn at $4 but some seem to be watching the basis more than the market.  

Southern Plains destinations are improving on basis somewhat in the Texas panhandle.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,118
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: bean Talk

FAKE NEWS

Advisor
Posts: 514
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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bin talk

Hobby,

How would you manage corn in bins that have been cored with temp monitors showing mid 20's? Suppose to  hit almost 70 Friday.

thanks

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,292
Registered: ‎10-17-2012

Re: bean Talk

Hobby - I have a queation here -  I just wondered how you tell the fake news for any other news ?  Or is this just the 2017 version of saying the news people are full of s--t when you don't agree with what they are say'n' ??

 

Thanks ole buddy

 

Ken

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,118
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: bean Talk

Wording very poor on that statement

 

If it had said "some farmers are selling 50% of expected production" , would not have thrown the B.S. flag

 

On the bins question, corn? What is the moisture? 

 

If it is 17% or less and that cool, probably nothing unless we get a fairly low humidity night tonight or tomorrow night might run them one night,  My opinion is it'll be more important to run them after this warm event

Senior Contributor
Posts: 269
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: bean Talk

There are good questions on this news article.  I called my futures broker and asked him how many farmers had sold new crop beans.  He said some were selling but didn't want to say anything like 40%.  His own thought is we may not be too far from the high and he didn't discourage me from selling soon but wondered if we want to sell on a dip.

 

Of course, some day it won't be a dip; it will be a drop on down into harvest.  We all hope to be on the right side of that.

 

In my own case, I'm going to have to pick a time and price to sell and that is giving me some things to think about right now.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,118
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: bean Talk

SW, back on topic, not sure about the bean acre ? 

 

The farmer I bought my semi from in the Miss delta said he was 100% beans the last two years was going all cotton this year.

 

Going to take quite a few more fringe acres to balance that out, he is not the only one based on antidotal evidence.

 

No profitable crop goes unnoticed long in this world. Kind of like no good deed goes unpunished...

Honored Advisor
Posts: 6,657
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: bean Talk

jim way too much of the "advising" pundents give answers in terms of what the market is doing in the next three hours, when we are thinking in the current marketing year.  And way too often they don't listen to the question enough to answer the one that was asked.  They just got a daily spiel and can't wait to give it to you.

 

Hobby, back down here... in this portion of my mind, next to the shackles on the wall, I wonder if planting plans are ever made by the corn bean ratio or the "conjecture" created by the need to fill column space.  Your point is fundamental, we are all looking for a crop that has profitability.....  even if it is the one we are planting with less inputs.

 

Point in fact..... I know where there will be 100+K acres of a corn variety  to be planted because it carries the guarantee of a 40 to 60 cent bonus...... and it is in fact, one of the worst quality products I have handled.  One of those speciality niche products that wouldn't get the time of day if corn were profitable on the open market.

 

If that mississippi valley area in Arkansas (south) goes back to cotton.... largely because the usda supports the price better than (it has actually had an update on the "loan rate" when nothing else has.) that will be a lot of bushels of beans gone.... Not many areas in the country that produce like that.