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01-22-2014 09:20 AM
To you western wheat guys is dryness a market maker or is it too early to tell.
01-22-2014 10:49 AM
Might be just a steer this year....I think the trend is down on all commodities. Some of it is due to the tightening of the screws on spending in Washington , and the dollar is not viewed as much as potential toilet paper right now. THis makes the inflation premium dissipate on commodities.
I would guess that we will see a wave of bankruptcies by this time next year as a lot of the new high flyers have to relearn the basic rules of business, and some of the established guys will relearn them.
I imagine we have seen the highs for old crop corn and soybeans already, and the best we can hope for is a spring retracement where if you are quick and take the price on the one or two days the market looks like its gonna blow its top off, you stay in business and prosper.
01-22-2014 11:07 AM
Basis is pushing corn bids up here for sure... should be 4.50 come spring harvest.. and over 5 if I could get some into America.
We have gone from like 3.60/ bu in Oct/Nov to 4.15 at the elevator.. if you can go to the end user she is already at the 4.40/ bu mark.
The best domestic deferred bid currently is 4.80... I guess you can pay for a 80,000 bu bin in almost one year by storing your corn.
01-22-2014 01:25 PM
01-22-2014 02:10 PM - edited 01-22-2014 02:12 PM
Sorry, I did not clarify. The currency is helping breakevens big time here next year.
It certainly is interesting times since we've lost parity... Can't go to the USA and buy equipment cheaper anymore: there's no accelerated depreciation here, obviously.