09-07-2012 03:35 PM - edited 09-07-2012 03:46 PM
i think my favorite line is this one..........
"I caution anyone of making to much of that," Mr Glauber said, noting that USDA analysts were saying that "we should be seeing record yields this year".
as captain d-bag was sticking his foot in his mouth..........some of us were looking to the sky going, o boy this could get ugly........
EDIT: and just so you have some weekend reading..........posted this awhile back on the other site before they booted me........cant remember if I posted it here or not......sorry if I did.........scary huh........."peak corn" anyone........cheers......
09-07-2012 04:08 PM
Sorry Mizzou but "PEAK CORN" is simply silly. There is not one bit of evidence to support such a notion. Nice if you want to make scarry headlines and looks real good after a drought (which isn't even one of the top 3 droughts in our short recorded history btw), but it is just hot air. Adopting "Peak Corn" as a management strategy, or core belief, will lead to much heartbreak and most likely bankruptcy.
09-07-2012 04:26 PM - edited 09-07-2012 04:30 PM
There never is till the 20/20 crowd shows up.....
The world's acres are outta balance and the trough is getting bigger.......
We can grow a 20B crop.....but it somes at the expense of other crops in a huge way.......peak corn is more complex than a ceiling of production......its the driver of ratios and needs........ influenced by weather.......against production of all crops.......
09-08-2012 09:03 AM
Going forward a "normal" year of production or trend will have trouble keeping up with demand, peak corn or not. We are in a bullish weather cycle for a few years.
09-08-2012 09:38 AM
As to your weather guru, I've seen various hucksters hit one over the years but it was dangerous to think they'd broken the code.
I'm skeptical because, among other reasons, he makes a categorical statement that there is no such thing as man made global warming.
There may very well not be but there has never been a period where we were releasing millions of years' of sequestered carbon annually. Therefore I don't see where his cyclical view informs him one way or the other.
That is a hubristic statement on his part and probably mostly a matter of playing to the political beiefs of a particular demographic for his own cred.
09-08-2012 10:25 AM
We are definitely in the 'danger zone', which I define as 'to late to change the outcome due to "Normal Production Variation." ' It is comparable to JIT delivery on an annual basis. This was more or less true of corn seed supply this year when companies had to get increase supplies grown in Brazil to make up for a shortfall in NAmerica. This was a somewhat iffy proposition. In other words, keeping the production engine going (even though it fell victim to drought) needed extra effort the way we currently have it structured. As far as I know the seed issue was successful - this time.
It's clear that demand and production are in a struggle. We don't have a national grain reserve (I know, we are an exporting country, therefore, we are always technically in excess) and we don't have regional or global reserves due to lack of the 'vision thing'. Except China and India. Probably the two biggest production powerhouses on earth. But, they understand they have a demand issue.
I think this next year will prove extremely instructive and probably very painful because of supply issues and an erratic and somewhat irrational market. Let's talk again next summer and you all tell me how this is working out. Frankly, I see the current market structure as being the biggest stumbling block. Too erratic and self serving to a few while a vital component of markets - the producer - are locked out of full rights and can't deliver the painful lessons the insiders need to have to keep them honest and realistic and understand it isn't a game of 'hold em' and that physical factors are more important than financial leverage and favoritism.
The market IS a distortion (and I'm talking futures). It can't give signals in time and it is a severely lagging indicator. Being 'sensitive' to conditions is far different than delayed volatility that becomes more extremist because of that delay. We already have the facts at hand we need. Now we wait for the market to jerk awake and scare itself - and probably us too.