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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

frost and such

someone asked about frost............and the 18th...........see below

 

as for the heat and dryness, if you were lucky to catch a chance shower the last few weeks you are living high on the hog..............however those areas are very spotty in nature...........

 

corn is starting to come out here..............about 30-50 below where it should be on stuff that survived..........other areas where chopped 4 weeks ago and appraised at 0-80 bu/a.............some areas are as bad as last year on corn, however for the most part it is better, but still not near what it should be.........even the areas that looked good all year have pulled back 30-50 off what most thought they might do...........too much heat and no water........

 

for the late areas, this heat is death, while it might or might not make it to black layer..............a late planted corn plant will try to compensate its grain fill period by several days by default.............add to that a lot of heat and no rain..........equals big freaking problem.............probably skinned 10 days off grain fill of what that hybrid shoulda done if it was planted April 20th...........so yes while the race may or may not be won..........the end game will be some pretty sorry corn..........

 

bottom line on corn............market hasnt factored in the crop size of sub 13B yet...........and likely wont care until late in the year or early next...........until then we bob and weave...........corn can not go much lower.........

 

soya are another story.............if you caught a freak rain you will have some beans.............but there are a tremendous amount of acres that may not make 20..............national average will likely come in under 40 but likely above 36..........with a crop of sub 3B............the market has not factored this in............

 

bottom line on soya..........market has rallied some, its digesting which is good...........IMO we will cycle higher but it might take till after harvest or at least mid harvest............

 

the 2014 acres battle will be interesting if the soya crop is as bad as I think it might be............I dont care how big the SA crop is touted, a 2.8B NA soya crop would be a problem.........

 

not sure of SA growing weather............some say we are slipping back to La Nina.........some say no............keep this in mind, 2012 is NOT as bad as it can get.................2013 mighta been the best we see for a few years..............2014 could be worse..........and the big problem may not show up till 2015 or 2016.............

 

o and did I hear China is going to be buying a lot more corn over the next 5 years.............bet they need more soya too.........

 

 

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Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,217
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: frost and such

[ Edited ]

pod counts alone in Aug - Pro Farm tour puts US @ 2.775. add in seed size difference?????????

 

pods reality aside. say some how they magically bounce back to 2012 levels. you think after last 5 weeks of growing conditions compared to last year seeds could be 80% size of last yr? - maybe.

 

that alone puts # @ 2.4................................could be some mkt shocks.....just sayin' - do the math.

 

add back in lower pod # = unbelievable.

Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,088
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: frost and such

Mt, we got rain in that 32 zone last night if that's for the 9th.. Otherwise, I'd say we aren't getting frost in some northern areas. Grounds wet further north..

I did get dime sized hail
Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,088
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: frost and such

Maybe 40f soon. Would have to be perfect frost conditions
Veteran Contributor
Canuck5
Posts: 106
Registered: ‎04-23-2013
0

Re: frost and such

 
Contributor
werkman53
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
0

Re: frost and such

Crazier things have happened, but a frost in about a weeks time seems craziest. A guy can drive himself nuts watching the GFS model and all of its waffling. I would bet a steak dinner on a low temp not breaking 60 at my farm, Sept 18. NWIL

Veteran Contributor
Doug N
Posts: 109
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
0

Re: frost and such

So you are saying a September 18th frost/freeze is no longer an issue? I don't see anything in that map that would do any real damage to the crop overall.
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 201
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: frost and such

So are you giving up on your prognostication for a cornbelt wide killing frost by the 18th?  Is that why you have come out of seclusion early or did the hot and dry weather bring you out?  Whatever the case I am sorry for your loss and that of others but I'm afraid some people are going to be a little upset by how much corn is really out there.  14 billion?  Oh hell no.  13 billion?  Probably not but just under or right there.  Unless we have a demand explosion soon, that is going to be enough to keep traders unimpressed for the time being.  Still hoping we see a short sucker rally sometime in the next couple of months but wouldn't hold my breath.  If this heatwave doesn't trigger a rally, harvest results with much poorer than expected yields are the bulls only hopes of this market taking off.

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

boy you guys are quick

[ Edited ]

to jump to conclusions.........

 

1.  "cornbelt wide killing frost"......????.......umm ok, prove it, find the quote...........its never cornbelt wide and it doesnt have to be..........

 

2.  "BY the 18th"......????........umm ok, prove it...........thats a full moon and a good spot to hang a date............anytime around that date and if it happens likely a few days after..........

 

3.  that map is for this weekend.............not next week and certainly not for the 18th-23rd.............which if its going to happen would be the sweet spot as thats about one week ahead of normal which is what some would suggest..........

 

as for a corn rally..........likely not all going to happen on the BOT as basis will again take corn above 6 in our area and maybe close to 7...........and it likely will not happen until after harvest..........just like in 2010 and some extent 2011, the BOT will not believe it till they see it in print later in the fall or winter...........

 

also keep in mind, soya likely are headed to 16 plus by next spring..............I dont care how stubborn corn is, if beans take off corn at least has to follow in the dust some.........and FYI the trade doesnt think this crop is sub 13..........heck I am not sure it believes it is sub 13.5.........anything under 13 is bullish and anything under 12.5 will really get things rolling especially if soya are headed to 16 plus.........

 

just some thoughts, to balance the bear...........this heat has done way more damage than a frost next week would have done..........

 

again just one more thing to pile on to PEAK CORN..........

 

FYI, whats your comment going to be when we dont beat the ole 09 record............I mean everyone and their dog was talking this is still a record crop..............PEAK CORN my friend................heck we cant break 13B consistantly with 6 and 7 dollar corn and huge acres...............HOW IN THE HELL ARE WE GOING TO BREAK 14B..............especailly when corn is surely going to 4????????????????