01-01-2014 11:37 AM
01-01-2014 12:31 PM
Cat,what is going to happen with all of these rediculous rent agreements that have been made the last few years.Were some of these multi-year and binding,or year to year negociable?
01-01-2014 12:43 PM - edited 01-01-2014 12:45 PM
The crying, whining, and wash out begins.
The non farm investors are going to hit the exit doors all at once.
Dry land prices in NW Kansas are already softening. (fringe acre areas)
The only difference this time over the 80's is going to be the size of the bankruptcies. May not be some of the write downs this time. Just show them the door.
Disregard the above ... we are at a new erra ... the road goes on forever without potholes ...Party on... time for a fresh beer and pass the popcorn going to be a good show coming up.
01-01-2014 12:49 PM
01-01-2014 12:52 PM
Well I was thinking the same thing. Too bad so much greed took over. If guys wouldn't have out bid each other so high and left these things alone they tend to average out over a period of years. Not saying you shouldn't give a little increase when times are good but what happens now. I guess it all depends how the lease was structured. Some times its hard to walk these things back.
I guess I was a little surprised when I ran my numbers. I do have some land free and clear which helps the big picture but you gotta look at every acre.
Working on the bean numbers ..were seeing glyphos resistant maretail show up so I need to add the cost of a preemerge now. Maybe look at some non-gmo pretty healthy premiums , little yield drag.
If your machinery is paid off what kinda of number for that expense do you use. Course I need to update combines . Ouch
Wife wants a new bathroom remodel this year, how do I tell her.. What new planter I just bought Honey?
01-01-2014 12:59 PM
I hear ya Hobby. Had to pass up a 120 I was farming for years.. came up for sale and the heirs wanted appraised value , had downpayment and Farm Credits blessing but just couldn't see it. It was gutwreching I'm still in mourning became emotionally attachted over the years.
An older acqaintence told me "keep your powder dry son". Difficult as I am not a patience person.
01-01-2014 01:02 PM
What about machinery replacement costs , did you pay yourself. I aint workin for nuthin no more. Too old LOL. What ya doing for soys seems a little light unless youre not in Monsantos program.
01-01-2014 01:07 PM
ray I would think they would of have grain forward sold to cover there big rents.If not to bad for them most of them big $rents are do March 1st and no cash good bye to them as there are a lot of guy like me that are ready to farm it.As I said before grandpa and daddy better get some of that old $$$ out because when this is all done she is going to get ulgy.It's going to come down to old $$ as we all know anyone that has bought 8000+ land and new paint and throw in high rents isn't going to work and no this wasn't all bought with cash.Mr Banker isn't going to like $6000 land and new paint losing 40% in value.There's going to be some good opportunities for us $5-6 corn guy's in the next few years.
01-01-2014 01:09 PM
Do you think the non farm investors will bail that soon. I guess where would they go . Of course if ROI is negative maybe they go to cash .They may stay a little loneger than we think just due to the cheap dollar. What do you think ??
01-01-2014 01:34 PM
The choices to invest assets with limited risk is still limited for those who see the economy without the political rose colored glasses.
Normal economics won't apply as long as we need the fed to print money to pay the interest of federal debt.