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Advisor
Posts: 8,076
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
0
Accepted Solution

not very helpful

Crop conditions barely budged.

 

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/usda/current/CropProg/CropProg-06-27-2016.pdf

 

8-14 is a bit warmer but quite a bit wetter in important areas.  That can change, but as we've seen so can 16-30s. And those have an even lower probability.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

Senior Advisor
Posts: 969
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
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Re: not very helpful

I begin have less confidence in crop conditions all the time.

 

There is at least 10% in IN under severe moisture stress after a late planting. Bad combination, yet

the G/E actually went up, with only 7% in the poor/very poor corner.

 

The numbers don't correlate well to yield anyway, but it would be nice if they at least made sense. 

:-)

Advisor
Posts: 8,076
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
0

Re: not very helpful

I don't have any illusoins about that system but this doesn't provide any ammo for bulls.

 

But fwiw back in the bad old days when there wasn't much fundamental pulse it was a general rule of thumb that it took two weeks of declining conditions plus a bullish forecast to sustain a rally.

 

If that 8-14 forecasts busts I'm sure we'll rally.

 

 

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Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,331
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: not very helpful

[ Edited ]

USDA's outdated-ness is and has been just plain ridiculous.    The fact that they can't tie into reports from the FSA offices and crop insurance numbers is just plain crazy.   Their outlandish claims of record yields before the crops are even planted should be terminated.  And the crop ratings?   I'm not sure who is in charge, but they should be looking for a new job.