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Contributor
saturated
Posts: 29
Registered: ‎07-21-2011
0

numbers

CORN USDA Alter. Est.
  2012/13 Est. 2012/13 Est.
     
Area Planted 97.2 97.2
Area Harvested 87.4 85.6
     
Yield per Harvested Acre 123.4 120
     
Beginning Stocks 989 300
Production 10780 10272
Imports 125 550
Supply, Total 11894 11122
Feed and Residual 4400 4400
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 5985 5938
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 4600 4510
Domestic, Total 10385 10338
Exports 750 679
Use, Total 11135 11017
Ending Stocks 759 105
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,136
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: numbers

seems more realistic, but where'd you see, find or get these alt. #'s?

Contributor
saturated
Posts: 29
Registered: ‎07-21-2011
0

Re: numbers

Area harvested used 88% instead of 90%(USDA). In 1988 area harvested was 86% versus 5 year average of 89%. This gives one about 96%(86%/89%). I used a rounded down 96% and multiplied that by present 5 year harvested percentage of 92%. This gave me 88% which was then multiplied by planted acres.
Yield used was 120 bpa versus USDA 123.4 bpa. In 1988 the yield reduction from 5 year average was 22%. 84.6 (USDA 1988) / 109 (5 year average through 1987) = 78%. Used 78% times 5 year average through 2011 crop (153.86) to get 120 bpa.
Changed USDA beginning stocks because minus 2012 early harvested corn don't believe there was much 2011 crop left on August 31, 2012. This number is a guess on my part.
A different import number was used to get ending stocks above 0.
Would point out that alternate estimate supply total better corresponds to March quarterly stocks number of 5.4 billion bushels.
Ethanol number was adjusted a bit lower as the weekly average is about 10% below last year's average.
Export number adjusted to be in line with weekly grain inspection number. Inspection running at 44% of last year.

Was going to change feed number but decided no sense in taking ending stocks to negative.

 

Paul Lange

 

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,136
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: numbers

interesting indeed and probably still too generous (supply-wise)

 

funny part about this year {as we all know}---insignificant amount of new crop to come online before Sep 1............esp compared to the billion bu+ they had to work with on last years balance sheet!