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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,200
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

peak corn....

And so it begins.......

Back to silence till this thing fully sorts itself out........
Frequent Contributor
WCWISC
Posts: 75
Registered: ‎04-08-2013
0

Re: peak corn....

Their gonna have to address PP acres at some point too.

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: peak corn....

Peak corn was and is a big fantasy.  I think we are going to prove that with a crop over 13 billion bushel.  Just think how big of a crop we might have had if things hadn't been so dicey this spring.  As it is with all of the issues we still look poised to come in at 13.5 or better.  12 billion is gone and 11 is in jeopardy?  I think not.

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,070
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: peak..... ah hem....soy...........wake up people

 
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: peak..... ah hem....soy...........wake up people

That I won't argue with!!!!

Frequent Contributor
jjoseph
Posts: 41
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
0

Re: peak corn....

I think the point he is trying to make is that since our acreage is expanding will there ever be a year that the weather will not have a hickup

SW MINN
Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 164
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
0

Re: peak corn....

Certainly there will.  Look at 2004 and for the most part 2008.  Yes there were localized issues, but by and large weather was excellent producing big yields.  There will be years sometime in the near future where weather will cooperate and produce some unbelieveable crops.  I'm not disputing the idea that a big crop with depressed prices will potentially lower acreage the following year.  I think everyone knows that.  What I am saying is that if market conditions dictate the required acres there is the potential to raise bigger crops in the future than we have seen previously.  The initial concept of peak corn had nothing to do with acreage being limited by price.  The thesis was that we physically could not raise bigger crops because of weather and the idea that we had hit a wall in regards to hybrids and technology.  It had nothing to do with acreage being limited by price.  That little twist got added in within the last nine months.

Veteran Contributor
farmerinontaro
Posts: 76
Registered: ‎11-15-2012
0

Re: peak..... ah hem....soy...........wake up people

You have to take this peak corn thing with a "grain of salt", Steve. Pardon the pun!

 

Peak corn refers to large amount acres of corn grown across different area's of the country.  It adds a lot of variability, vs the 80mil top yielding traditional acres. 

 

Therefore you can get more bushels, but you do not achieve the suggested trendline on yields.  Adding poorer ground, fringe acres with varying soil types, along with variable weather across the country makes trendline hard to achieve.

 

When we grow mostly corn on our farms, we get more bushels, but a lower average yield.  As ground conditions are not the same on all our farms & neither is the weather.  Some ground is better suited to wheat, or other crops besides corn.

 

The question becomes at what price can you afford to run marginal acres in corn?  When cash price is high, and pencil in a lower bu/ac average yield it can work.  Other wise might be just as wise to grow something else.

 

Depending on the number of acres grown, it effects trendline.

 

All this factors into the idea of peak corn. 

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 324
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: peak corn....

Peak corn for the US maybe, but not for the rest of the world. Peak corn demand for the US is a bigger worry for me than yields increaseing steadly over the years.

Advisor
hardnox604008
Posts: 5,518
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: peak corn....

Even though the concept of a permanent accelerating yield trend that was used to sell the ethanol program was a rural myth, I wouldn't rule out the likelhood of a 175 nat'l yield the next time we have belt wide weather like 2004, 1994 or 1982.

 

If you don't believe we'll ever have a year like then again (MT) then maybe you believe in climate change but I've taken the liberty of assuming that you don't.

"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason."

J.K. Galbraith