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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,338
Registered: ‎11-02-2010

record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

2004...% planted May 9th and 16th..........84 and 92 respectively.......% dough August 8th and 15th..............42 and 57 respectively

 

2009...% planted May 10th and 17th........48 and 62 respectively.......% dough August 9th and 16th..............24 and 40 respectively

 

2013...% planted May 12th and 19th........28 and 71 respectively........% dough August 11th and 18th...........32 and 52 respectively

 

2014...% planted May 11th and 18th........59 and 73 respectively........% dough August 10th and 17th...........54 and 70 respectively

 

and just for fun.............2010.........it had great crop ratings thru most of the summer, and it followed up a 2009 crop..........kind of a similar thing we got going on today.......and it disappointed, well it disappointed those with their head up their azz, some of us knew 2010 was screwed while others thought it was 170 plus........lmao

 

2010...% planted May 9th and 16th..........81 and 87 respectively.........% dough August 8th and 15th............52 and 74 respectively

 

All numbers were pulled straight off NASS crop progress reports from actual years date and data...............

 

sorry but something doesnt jive............fast grain fill doesnt equal record yields

 

thoughts

Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 222
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

[ Edited ]

It seems all forcasts compare to prior years crops.  I understand the logic, but where is the adjustments section for these comparisons?  I plant with a budget, this year I reduced pop by 10% and N by 30% ( I think that was a mistake), all because my projected selling price was reduce to $4.09.  I also cut out some extras that cost 10% of the planting bill.  Now, am I the only one who has done this?  How is this adjusted for in the final tally of crop production?   

 

 

Senior Contributor
buckfarmer
Posts: 1,244
Registered: ‎06-14-2010
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

No record for me if for no other reason than my corn acres have rotated back to my poorer ground. Even if everything was same as last year yield will be off at least 10%.
Advisor
vrbuck
Posts: 889
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

Guess you haven't read the comments from the bull cheerleader arlan suderman lately. The last 5 years have had the perma bulls quote Him ad nauseum. His sheet will blow the doors off what you say.
Frequent Contributor
fbf2574789
Posts: 45
Registered: ‎09-15-2011

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

+$2.00 beans. Someone may be running low on beans

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 691
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

What's the big deal about +200X ??

 

You could have sold +300X  or better several months ago

 

 

Senior Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,240
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

[ Edited ]

And if we wouldn't have raised anything then what? Buy back at +400 to cover the forward sales? Forward selling is location dependent. Anyone who's ever failed at raising a crop will probably understand that.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,605
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

Shaggy, It's obvious that some can't see the whole picture..................  :smileyhappy:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 691
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

Well fellas, I am not sure which of us is not seeing the whole picture

 

I am talking about old crop beans, not forward contracts of new crop

 

that +300X was available last April/May for old crop beans in your bins....

 

bids were based off the July at the time, but were the eqv of +300X at the time

 

now, everyone is ga-ga at +200X because it is such a big number....and it is compared to historicals and especially compared to what the basis will be on Oct 20 this year...

 

Ray J

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 691
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: record crop still not jiving.....UPDATED numbers.......

Oh....and shaggy I know all about not raising a crop...

 

1977.......had 300 acres of corn and 25 acres of soybeans......no rain after planting and temps on July 4 for 105 with a SW wind at 35 mph.....corn didn't pollinate.....county average was 18 bpa....it started raining in LH July and we got more bushels of crop off the beans than we did the corn.....

 

some of us might be more in touch with the realities of farming than you think!