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Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 437
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

short crops have long tails.

     Short crops of all kinds have long tail,but is it possible at the level of carry out cumfort zone that the trade thinks is just OK with the wheat complex that the short crop has long tail idea may just take a great big cr@p some day!

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,641
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: short crops have long tails.

Speaking about corn, to have the "short crop/long tail" tale to come into play. The prices need to get so high that it puts endusers out of commisssion, and I don`t think that we have seen that.  Corn never made it to that "$10 mark", sure a few E-plants are sitting on the sideline, but that`s because there isn`t the supply for them, why bid "$10" for something you can`t get anyway?  JM2¢ 

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 687
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: short crops have long tails.

given the cash corn movement in the midwest this week at $7.50--7.60 (Iowa values) , I would think that if $8 were offered, you probably couldn't get on the delivery schedule until late May or June...

 

not that there would be a lot of corn left in the country at that point....

 

but, there is corn out there....

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: short crops have long tails.

Ray,  When 5-6 big feedlots here decided to start buying wheat for April/May usage.  The E plant locally sure got full of corn for those two months.  I am sure it was a reaction issue.  But the rationing process happens in many different ways.

Lots of factors come into the market issue as far as rationing bushels and usage.

The low cow numbers are a big issue.  What is in those feedlots and at what % of capacity.

 

The idea that demand is trimed by high price is one part of a big picture.  IMO--- the drought was trimming cattle numbers for at least 3 years in Colo., Tex. NMm  before the drought started into grain country.

I still think the housing wreck and the panic of 2008 in financials help limit the up side of the markets.  Cattle and grains.

sw
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: short crops have long tails.

Ray,  Have to agree with you on the corn movement.   The few farmers that have corn left on the farm have itchy trigger fingers. Any rally will be sold.   A local ethanol plant in my neighborhood lowered their basis by 3 or 4 cents late this week. That tells me they got a good amount of corn this past week.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,641
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: short crops have long tails.

I need to haul some corn for grocery money one of these days, the roads have knee-deep ruts in places, doesn`t look like fun. Maybe road embargos in places?  For getting the new crop planted, it`s getting too late to be a early planting here given the forecast(yes that can change rapidly).  But north Makato and northwest into the Dakotas, they have blizard warnings.  Northern Min was -15°, NCIA is going to have a very cold week ahead close to 0° at night and not exactly a "warm" 25 day forecast on Accuweather. But we do need the moisture :smileyhappy:

Don`t redistribute my wealth, redistribute my work ethic.
Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,213
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Roads and big crop

Sold a little corn from commercial storage last week.

Picked up cheque Friday and was surprised how many envelopes with cheques were on their desk.

Small elevator so probably half of their customers had cheques waiting for them.

 

Owner operator was telling me of the problem trucking our large Ontario crop into the US.

BA mentions roads with ruts.

Seems your roads will not allow our trucks to haul there unless they are just half loaded.

Trucks have to drop their pups and haul just one trailer at a time.

A trailer like we use to haul from farm carries a payload of 45-48 tonnes and that is more than  gross loads in many parts of US.

 

Just saying we have the corn here but it is difficult and expensive to get it to where you are short.

 

BTW those cheques were probably from the price run up we had where price got to $266 per tonne and a little change.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.