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01-05-2013 10:40 AM - edited 01-05-2013 10:42 AM
What bet you want to make?
Notice I have NEVER thought we would go trendline USDA yields with large planted acres. Trendline on the upslope path becomes an astronomical # as time goes on. Also statistically impossible with large amounts of marginal land planted. (acres PLANTED divided by bu produced)
Remember many things are possible, just a smaller # of them are probable.
Now if you want to meet at say Jethro's for a get acquainted session I'll buy the 4 person platter. Wives included here. No bet needed.
edit: check the ego at the door, mine's enough for both of us.
01-05-2013 10:55 AM
SW: I talked tp ECIN this morn just before he put that up and he was in a huirry to beat a ice storm to town and had more data and calculations he was thinking about along those lines.
I have to somewhat agree with VERB about planted acres being a pull it out your a-- thing.
I mean look at those #'s from their own reports 9% abondoned? Get real here a minute. That is almost 1 out of 10 fields. I dare you to find even 1 (ONE) per county average in the I states abondoned on a year in year out basis let alone each and every year.
Yes it happens out west but those are not average acres with those trendline yields expected to start with and it would have to be 30% out your way every year to even = the acres needed to get 9% of the total. That's one heck of a hail storm.
01-05-2013 10:58 AM
Hobbyfarmer- I have a very, very, small ego, but should I check it at the door too? Let me know.
You know, I find it interesting that there is alot of talk about rain/moisture, and in Iowa the last 26 years I have lost 1,000X more corn yield to waterlogged soils than drought. Not flooding, just our very heavy soil staying wet for weeks at a time. The corn then turns yellow and suffers a big yield lost. I have spent 100's of thousands of dollars on drain tile on my corn fields the last 26 years to drain the excess moisture off my fields, and you western cornbelt guys talk about putting more moisture on your fields. Very interesting on how things are so very different between the cornbelt states. But currently, none of our tiles have run water since last spring, I have never seen this before, usually in the fall they always still run water, but not this year.
01-05-2013 11:18 AM
My only point was (no matter what the % is or what it is based on) They use nearlyt the same % year after year, which to me shows that reduction figure is based on nothing if it shows no variation. Just an irs like standard deduction taken annually to help improve the yield figure. When the planted acres go up 10 million acres in a two year time period, using the same % increases the abandoned(or silaged, unreported, grazed out, whatever) acres automatically, protecting the yield figure from the inherent risk of planting more acres. ----------- the function of the formula.
It leads one to believe there is not much actual research behind the process(as verb pointed out).. It rubbs me wrong when I know within the seed industry, fsa data, insurance data, and grain merchandising industry we have better data than that.
01-05-2013 11:38 AM
This is the one thing great about some of this technology (in this case I'm referring to the internet and this site)
The sum of this is greater than it's parts. We as a group can and are able to better look at the info out there and disect it to see a better clearer "what's going on" picture than just our little "backyard-itts" that is so easy to get into.
Sw: nice catch on the #'s game/constant they are using. Kind of like the old saying they used to talk about around here after the "harvestore" sales man would leave..."Garbage in Garbage out"
01-05-2013 12:11 PM
I'm glad you guy's are here to help me out. This site has really improved my comprehension of what's happening.
I usually have too simplistic a way of looking at things. In the good old days I'd just looked around and said "I'm screwed".
Now with all the tools and resources at my disposal I have changed my saying "we're all screwed". Makes me feel much better.
01-05-2013 12:25 PM
not just my opinion, b/c extensive studies/correlations were performed whem crude oil traded over 100 to 140's about actual drivers b/c all the complaints of SPEC/FUND $$ manipulation.
charts clearly showed specs actually liquidating during the run from about (100-110) to over 140. seen it myself on different commodities which have big runs to the upside.
at the end of the day (or move) it's the PHYSICAL economics that determine when, where & why an instrument discovers price...one recent example was big run in COTTON - the short commercials got squeezed to death.
i've read on this site before, some farmers being concerned about "overcommitting" sales.......
01-05-2013 12:38 PM
It is not just Iowa that has mre problems with too much moisture than too little.
i also have the problem of getting the soil dry enough to plant into. Heavier soil and tiled too but have lost more yield through the years from not being able to plant on time because of wet soil. Plant too soon in wet soil and pay the price from ield reductions of compaction.
We also have not had much if any water exiting from tile since spring.
May be a little trickle now but little snow on the ground to melt into the soil profile for next year.
Another item mentioned in this thread is price and yield.
With dry weather this year my yield on both corn and soys fell to 93 & 96% of my 5 year average BUT that puts them both about equal to my 5 year average of 5 years ago, after 4 years of above averge yield including 2 of way above average (110 & 126%) this years yield fell all the way down to what was averge in 2008 and above average from years before that.
I also notice when I did Jan 1st financial statement that prices of my crops in storage are almost identical to Jan 1, 2012 prices.
Yes they are not a good as they were a few months ago but they are also no worse than they were last year.