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03-27-2014 10:21 AM - edited 03-27-2014 10:22 AM
Early Morning Market Comments for Thursday, March 27, 2014:
Grain prices are currently trading quiet and mixed with corn about a nickel up, beans are up 1-2 cents and the wheat market down 3-4 cents.
Wheat is seeing some follow through to the downside after yesterday's .20-cent losses. Which is particularly due to better than expected rains in Texas and Oklahoma yesterday morning and into midday. The rains were not heavy but any precipitation is welcomed and generally 1/10 to 4/10 of an inch of rain was seen in many areas with some isolated areas seeing a half of an inch. News that Mexico sold a cargo of US wheat that was purchased from the US, they sold it back to the US with plans to replace it with flax seed wheat and that was also seen as a negative factor in the wheat market and an indicator that US prices are too high. Old crop soybeans remain firm the trade is not willing to take old crop soybean prices significantly lower until there is proof that the US can resolve the old crop tight stock situation. We will find out on Monday from the USDA in the quarterly stocks report if the old crop soybean stock situation is tighter or lesser than the trade believes. That report will be very important for the old crop soybeans. In corn, prices have been very quiet over the last few trading sessions, very narrow ranges are being seen. This is likely to continue right into Monday's government reports. Keep in mind that Monday we will see the quarterly stocks reports and the perspective planting reports. We are going to continue to see choppy sideways trade in all of the grains for a couple more days heading into the Monday reports.
03-27-2014 01:02 PM
Midday Market Comments Thursday, March 27th:
Currently grains are trading mixed with corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents lower and wheat leaning to the upside with wheat anywhere from 12-15 cents higher.
Weekly export sales for corn were very strong coming in at 1.4 million metric tons. This was nearly double last week's sales of 746 thousand tons and it still appears that the USDA is to low with its corn export estimates. This has been a supportive factor for corn here this morning. We do need to keep in mind that is does appear that USDA's feed and residual use is too high. So we may see that reflected in a higher stocks number come Monday. Again, that will be important to the trade coming on Monday in the Quarterly stock s report.
Wheat started out the day lower on follow through to yesterday's losses but at midday wheat is bouncing back and recouping much of yesterday's losses. The updated US drought monitor shows worsening drought conditions in the south west plain. This is a supportive feature for wheat here this morning.
Soybeans are lower today, weekly export sales were a marketing year low of just 12 thousand tons. The rally in prices is US Soybeans is pressuring the old crop prices combined with weaker basis levels in South America does appear see a shift in the overall rationing process that is necessary for old crop soybeans. Keep in mind that US export sales have been consistently running above the level needed to reach USDA's export forecast. So we need to see either more imports coming to the US or exports to be slowed. We need to ration some of this old crop demand and keep stocks at a pipeline minimum.
Overall, markets as I mentioned choppy today. All of the markets traded on either side of unchanged. We would expect more choppy trade and mixed trade as we head into Monday's prospective planting and quarterly stocks report.
03-27-2014 02:28 PM - edited 03-27-2014 02:29 PM
MARKET COMMENTARY March 27, 2014
Corn exports this week were quite strong, with 55.4 million bushels in the 13/14 marketing year. The biggest buyer this week was Egypt (17.1 myn bushels), followed by Mexico, Colombia, South Korea and Japan. The unexpectedly large number was enough to turn corn futures from overnight softness to firmness in the day session. May futures closed at 4.92, but that is still 10 cents off the 5.025 highs set early on the morning of Friday March 7.
Now that we have the pump primed, can we fully re-trace that early month move??
There is a disease in this industry, and I see it playing out once again today. It is called “round-lot-itis”.
It’s where folks get fixated on a particular price point and are willing to forgo pricing any of their grain if they cannot achieve that price level. Yes, that level is $5, and sometimes I am really surprised when folks are willing to let 3 cents stop them from capturing 95%+ of the rally since early January.
CARGILL/EDDYVILLE 03/27 2:00 PM BIDS AND HOURS UPDATE
THURSDAY 6AM TO 4:30PM EDDY OFFICE 800-515-1105
FRIDAY 6AM TO 4:00PM EDDY BIDLINE 800-223-5540
SATURDAY CLOSED WET FEED INFO 800-317-8825
MONDAY 6AM TO 4:30PM SOYBEAN BIDS 800-377-0304
TUESDAY 7AM TO 4:30PM
3/4 rate moisture scale began Monday December 02
By March 28 -06K 4.86
Mar 31 Apr 11 -02K 4.90
Apr 14-30 +04K 4.96
May 2014 +05K 4.97
June 2014 -01N 4.95
July 2014 -01N 4.95
Aug 2014 -05U 4.86
Sept 1-15 -10U 4.81
Sept 16-30 -15U 4.76
Oct 1-15 -20Z 4.68
Oct 16-31 -25Z 4.63
Nov 1-15 -25Z 4.63
Nov 16-30 -15Z 4.73
Dec 2014 -10Z 4.78
Jan 2015 -20H 4.76
Feb 2015 -15H 4.81
Mar 2015 -10H 4.86
Apr 2015 -12K 4.89
May 2015 -08K 4.93
June 2015 -10N 4.93
July 2015 -07N 4.96
Oct 2015 -30Z 4.51
Nov 2015 -25Z 4.56
Dec 2015 -15Z 4.66
03-27-2014 03:01 PM
"round-lot-itis" ............................It's not like this is the first time he has seen this happen........it certainly is not like he just started buying grain.............not sure why he is surprised by it. My question would be, Why don't you "round up" your basis by that 3 cents if this really bothers you and you really want that grain.
I would guess that the reasons farmers wait for that 3 cents more are the same reasons that grain buyers offer 3 cents less.
You mean that you would turn away millions of bushels of corn for 3 cents? Shame on you.
03-27-2014 03:37 PM
How Do Court Reporters Keep Straight Faces?
How Do Court Reporters Keep Straight Faces? These are from a book called Disorder in the Courts and are things people actually said ...in court, word for word, taken down and published by court reporters that had the torment of staying calm while the exchanges were taking place.
ATTORNEY: What was the first thing your husband said to you that morning?
WITNESS: He said, 'Where am I, Cathy?'
ATTORNEY: And why did that upset you?
WITNESS: My name is Susan!
ATTORNEY: What gear were you in at the moment of the impact?
WITNESS: Gucci sweats and Reeboks.
ATTORNEY: Are you sexually active?
WITNESS: No, I just lie there.
ATTORNEY: What is your date of birth?
WITNESS: July 18th.
ATTORNEY: What year?
WITNESS: Every year.
ATTORNEY: How old is your son, the one living with you?
WITNESS: Thirty-eight or thirty-five, I can't remember which.
ATTORNEY: How long has he lived with you?
WITNESS: Forty-five years.
ATTORNEY: This myasthenia gravis, does it affect your memory at all?
ATTORNEY: And in what ways does it affect your memory?
WITNESS: I forget..
ATTORNEY: You forget? Can you give us an example of something you forgot?
ATTORNEY: Now doctor, isn't it true that when a person dies in his sleep, he doesn't know about it until the next morning?
WITNESS: Did you actually pass the bar exam?
ATTORNEY: The youngest son, the 20-year-old, how old is he?
WITNESS: He's 20, much like your IQ.
ATTORNEY: Were you present when your picture was taken?
WITNESS: Are you **bleep**ting me?
ATTORNEY: So the date of conception (of the baby) was August 8th?
ATTORNEY: And what were you doing at that time?
WITNESS: Getting laid
ATTORNEY: She had three children , right?
ATTORNEY: How many were boys?
ATTORNEY: Were there any girls?
WITNESS: Your Honor, I think I need a different attorney. Can I get a new attorney?
ATTORNEY: How was your first marriage terminated?
WITNESS: By death..
ATTORNEY: And by whose death was it terminated?
WITNESS: Take a guess.
ATTORNEY: Can you describe the individual?
WITNESS: He was about medium height and had a beard
ATTORNEY: Was this a male or a female?
WITNESS: Unless the Circus was in town I'm going with male.
ATTORNEY: Is your appearance here this morning pursuant to a deposition notice which I sent to your attorney?
WITNESS: No, this is how I dress when I go to work.
ATTORNEY: Doctor , how many of your autopsies have you performed on dead people?
WITNESS: All of them. The live ones put up too much of a fight.
ATTORNEY: ALL your responses MUST be oral, OK? What school did you go to?
ATTORNEY: Do you recall the time that you examined the body?
WITNESS: The autopsy started around 8:30 PM
ATTORNEY: And Mr. Denton was dead at the time?
WITNESS: If not, he was by the time I finished.
ATTORNEY: Are you qualified to give a urine sample?
WITNESS: Are you qualified to ask that question?
And last: ATTORNEY: Doctor, before you performed the autopsy, did you check for a pulse?
ATTORNEY: Did you check for blood pressure?
ATTORNEY: Did you check for breathing?
ATTORNEY: So, then it is possible that the patient was alive when you began the autopsy?
ATTORNEY: How can you be so sure, Doctor?
WITNESS: Because his brain was sitting on my desk in a jar.
ATTORNEY: I see, but could the patient have still been alive, nevertheless?
WITNESS: Yes, it is possible that he could have been alive and practicing law.//