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Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,204
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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updated sales.........

below you will find updated sales for the week............seems a few don't understand the chart or fail to understand the concept.........the USDA supply/demand projections that get us to carryout use assumptions..........in regards to exports those assumptions were that in 2012 we would ship approximately 75%, 87%, and 88% of 2011's total...........which by default means that if they are indeed right, we will lag last years numbers............this chart shows this year versus last, then gives a percentage of, then gives the percentage that the USDA is using for its numbers, then gives the difference between the two........a positive number means we are ahead of the 2012 USDA number at current pace.........a negative number means we are behind the 2012 USDA number at current pace..........

 

so that said if you look below you see wheat is 2% ahead, corn is 10%, soya are lagging 23%..............the shipments chart I post is the same thing.............and as of last shipment updates wheat is 19% ahead, corn is 2% behind, soya are lagging 21%..........

 

so if you believe the numbers, which are facts, not made up............corn and wheat are tracking ahead of USDA 2012 projections for export sales.........and shipments are flat to ahead...........soya are lagging (I have not disputed that, it is concerning)...........

 

thats not doom and gloom.........

 

the fact wheat just went vertical against corn today because a little birdie told some people maybe the world doesn't have cellars full of wheat, O AND CORN IS STILL KING..........

 

FWIW.........final IMO thought if your bullish...........old crop target $6.92-$7.29 (local cash bid is $6.00 right now, couple strong weeks and we are there)...........if you feel lucky, start scaling in at $7.29 with 20% sales on every 10 cent move.............

 

 

 currentpreviousactualprojecteddifference
 yearyear%%%
 salessalesof previousof previousof previous
wheat65840085250077.23167155752.231671554
corn87170090020096.83403688879.834036881
soya782000120380064.9609569788-23.03904303
Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,506
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: updated sales.........

Good info.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

Thanks for the info. I do know locally, there is less corn piled at the elevators. Perhaps more farmer stored, but no one I know plans to sell much if any until $6.50 or so.
Senior Contributor
vrbuck
Posts: 617
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

[ Edited ]

I don't know where you got your numbers and I am not refuting them, but the numbers I have show an inspection rate that is 84.76 of last years pace.  Your adjusted numbers show usda expecting a 87.5 pace.  Close to 3 percentage lag in corn inspections.  Mine is 353,816 vs 417,394.  Their numbers come out every monday and lag but it is the only place I know where to find them. Fact is six and seven dollar corn decreased demand.  You can't market you corn based on last years fundementals.

Senior Contributor
vrbuck
Posts: 617
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

I will repeat...........Once the blenders credit expires demand for ethanol will drop like a rock.  Gasoline demand in the US is lagging 4% from last year and ethanol production is bigger.  Where is the extra ethanol going?  The blenders are stockpiling it to take advantage of the blenders credit.  To top it off Brazil decreased their mandate, they may decrease it more.  The EU is beginning and anti-dumping investigation against US ethanol and the blenders credit impact on domestic supplies.  Nobody wants corn anymore.

Senior Contributor
425Cat
Posts: 1,425
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

"Nobody" wants corn anymore????

Senior Contributor
rightone
Posts: 217
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: canceled exports

on especially corn ( bunch of those canceled the past 3 weeks ) seems to have no catagory.

 

Cost affective cattle for every environment here.
Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,204
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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they are accounted for.........

nt

Senior Contributor
425Cat
Posts: 1,425
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

Mizzo.

 

Trying to be bullish here but the market like Friday's action on corn seems to tell a different story. Your lofty price targets seem to exude some irrational exuberance. Not sure how we get there without some new news.

 

I'm not a big bear either

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,204
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: updated sales.........

if this time was different this market should be a dollar lower, maybe more..........its not..........could it go, maybe..........

 

my point is to show that the fundamentals have not really changed..........all this hoopla about exports being poor, well soya maybe, but corn and wheat are in line or tracking ahead of projections...........you think $4.99 new crop is buying acres right now?????..........the other thing that needs to be realized is that demand will not over time contract.........right now USDA is expecting it to, to make their balance sheets look good........what happens when demand stretches its legs in a year like we just came off of..........

 

this time last year we were lower yet and no one wanted to believe we would go to $8.............it happened.........and it happened with a large carryout in the bag..............we have much less carryout, less supply.......only thing different today is demand projections are lower than last year...........again over time demand will not contract..........

 

this is way out there thinking here..........but IMO..........we are in the midst of a bull super cycle in AG that will go out into 2020 or 2030............now in this cycle we will have volitility, and being able to get in synch with keeping COP down and cash in on high dollar sales will be key.........we could see periods of time where you could get caught with a high COP and on the lower cycle in commodities prices...........we already saw that once in 2008 (even though I think it was all air, it was likely the precurser).........

 

as for 2030 and beyond.............thats an interesting topic.........some feel that in order for humans to survive on earth we actually need to keep the population lower..........equilibrium on a world scale is kind of hard to get to...........