11-15-2013 11:31 AM
not sure mike --- If you are telling me --thanks. It includes the ethanol increase since the other two did not ramp up in the last 6 years.
Statement with stone's chart ---
Today’s chart shows historical USDA corn usage in billions of bushels, with total demand shown on the left axis, and demand by category on the right. The current 2013/14 de- mand table has total usage recovering to 12.95 billion bush- els, just over 100 mbu off the all-time levels of 2009/10 (13.066 bln bu) and ‘10/11 (13.055 bln). The ‘13/14 export estimate (1.4 bln bu) stands over a billion off the all-time high (2.437 bln in ‘07’08), though feed usage this year is seen rebounding to a six-year high at 5.2 billion bushels.
11-15-2013 11:36 AM
Mike what I thought was most interesting is the ramp up of usage since 1990 and how little it correlates with crop size and price.
2012 is obvious since there was less crop to consume and carry was used to build usage possibly above production. But that is a pretty relentless trend..
11-15-2013 01:47 PM - edited 11-15-2013 01:47 PM
Trends are your friends - unless you're not paying attention. Trends that don't show enough history can be misleading or at least not very informative. The graph you've posted clearly demonstrates changes that are almost geometric.
11-15-2013 02:30 PM
This one goes to 1973.
I find it hard to see the seventies type surplus buildiing years ahead when the prices of the last 4 years did not deter the trend.
11-16-2013 01:29 AM
world corn consumption in 1990 was about 477 mmt - world pop = 5.5 bil
world corn consumption this yr proj about 928 mmt - world pop = 7.125 bil
therefore, since 1990 world consumption has increased about 50% yet population only increased about 29%
we can then say between 1990 - 2013 consumption has increased at about a 58% faster rate than population.
we will run out at some point. welcome to the (temporary) real world!