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Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,229
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

we need record crops

corn usage.png

 

How do we compare to 1996?

 

Perspective  --- is important.

sw
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,037
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: we need record crops

FSI meaning food service industry

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,229
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: we need record crops

not sure mike --- If you are telling me --thanks.   It includes the ethanol increase since the other two did not ramp up in the last 6 years.

 

Statement with stone's chart ---

Today’s chart shows historical USDA corn usage in billions of bushels, with total demand shown on the left axis, and demand by category on the right. The current 2013/14 de- mand table has total usage recovering to 12.95 billion bush- els, just over 100 mbu off the all-time levels of 2009/10 (13.066 bln bu) and ‘10/11 (13.055 bln). The ‘13/14 export estimate (1.4 bln bu) stands over a billion off the all-time high (2.437 bln in ‘07’08), though feed usage this year is seen rebounding to a six-year high at 5.2 billion bushels. 

sw
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,229
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: we need record crops

Mike what I thought was most interesting is the ramp up of usage since 1990 and how little it correlates with crop size and price.

 

2012 is obvious since there was less crop to consume and carry was used to build usage possibly above production.  But  that is a pretty relentless trend..

sw
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,119
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: we need record crops

[ Edited ]

Trends are your friends - unless you're not paying attention. Trends that don't show enough history can be misleading or at least not very informative. The graph you've posted clearly demonstrates changes that are almost geometric.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,229
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: we need record crops

http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/marketing/graphs/Crops/Corn/CornUsage.htm

 

This one goes to 1973.  

 

I find it hard to see the seventies type surplus buildiing years ahead when the prices of the last 4 years did not deter the trend.

sw
Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 423
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: we need record crops

    How many more people are there than there was in 73?

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,070
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: we need record crops

looks like almost double, Ray.

 

File:World-Population-1800-2100.svg

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,070
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: we need record crops

world corn consumption in 1990 was about 477 mmt - world pop = 5.5 bil

 

world corn consumption this yr proj  about 928 mmt - world pop = 7.125 bil

 

therefore, since 1990 world consumption has increased about 50% yet population only increased about 29%

 

we can then say between 1990 - 2013 consumption has increased at about  a 58% faster rate than population.

 

 we will run out at some point. welcome to the (temporary) real world!