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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,780
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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wheat thoughts

trying on get back up to spend on a few things, been working on some others things here, haven't had a lot of thinking on the markets,

other than hearing things go down.

wheat......for some reason the little jingle of "two all beef patties, special sauce, lettace, cheese, pickles, onion on a sesame seed bun"

funny how I can remember that, but other things I should remember, I haven't a clue.

it must be the sesame seed bun.....back when we had good demand.....back when we didn't have tufu burgers, nor gluten free

things.  I guess we had such conditions back then, we just didn't realize what it was, but still just as bad for people that had it.

 

ok...back to the wheat that is used to make the buns......looks like the latest data shows that ks wheat is only 43% good to excellent

condition, most of that bring good.........the remainder, some 57% fair to worse, so over 50% is fair, at best.....considering we

have the lowest seeded crop back to the turn of the century....one has to wonder, shouldn't we be seeing a stronger market ?

granted, it is better than it was.  had wheat been where it is now, than when I had to sell this fall, I would be having far fewer

headaches balancing the budget.

 

I also noted that the drought conditions are starting to expand in HRW area.

 

the question will be the number of acres harvested.....some of the wheat is not in whippy shape, some may want to graze out

the wheat, thinking it would be a better return.

 

then, all the warm wx....getting the wheat to take off early, start using water......to perhaps get some cold weather

and cut production due to damage ?

 

is it time to buckle in for a possible ride up ?

question is will it start before harvest, or will we need to wait until after harvest, for the real stuff to sink in ?

 

hold on, major astro at the controls !

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: wheat thoughts

I'd say after harvest.  Depends on the lies told about harvested acres  Should be very low since planted acres were not much. .... Ins claims rolling in across the southern counties.

 

58c40937ac42d.image.jpg

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,780
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: wheat thoughts

A picture is worth a 1,000 words

 

maybe we should put it on the cover of the Chicago Tribune.

 

 

Advisor
Posts: 589
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: wheat thoughts

But I dont think that was a wheat field.  but my question is how many cattle were killed in the fires, and will that have any affect on the cattle market?  Seems it should lowetr the calf crop at least a little bit.  

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: wheat thoughts

The fire was Monday and I was there on Friday.....  death tole was "large".  

Dozers and backhoes were parked waiting on dig safe calls -- which usually takes 3-4 days.  Lots of dead...for miles///

The fire made close to a 70+ mile distance sw to ne.  Assuming it started somewhere east of Perryton Tx.  We drove 50 miles of it in Okla & Ks....  Just the accounts from the ranchers I know in that area...   well I know of 2000+ head shot.  That many more found dead and I am not that friendly in the area.   They were still looking.. counts were still short.

A rancher never knows his count until the total is rounded up to the highest number.

 

The picture appears to be near the Clark County lake area and the lone wheat field is over that ridge 2 miles... but it is gone.. The few survivers are on it and the it will be gone by now...   In the far distance and in a low area is Ashland Ks.  Saved by three wheat fields that slowed the fire enough to protect a precious hamlet in cattle country.

That picture is on one of the most beautiful drives in KS........     The lake sets way down in a canyon ... a small canyon in colorado terms.... smaller but possible the prettiest reservoir in KS.

The hutch news provided the photos.....  The man in the picture is Pat Roberts as I recall.

 

The following one was taken from the Cimmaron River looking East NE  south of Englewood, Ks  nearly on the Oklahoma line.

The wind blew the fire through the trees and in many cases put out the fire before the large trees could burn completely.  Homes on the west side of Englewood lost out buildings and look like they were painted with a "blow torch"  for lack of a better term.

 

58c40937ac42d.image.jpg

 

 

Advisor
Posts: 850
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: wheat thoughts

"...

....looks like the latest data shows that ks wheat is only 43% good to excellent

condition, most of that bring good.........the remainder, some 57% fair to worse, so over 50% is fair, at best.....considering we

have the lowest seeded crop back to the turn of the century....one has to wonder, shouldn't we be seeing a stronger market ?"

 

Arbitrage is recognizing and taking advantage of a difference in value of a product in two markets.  You see that wheat should be priced higher.  Logic says you should buy wheat and resell it at a higher value.  Of course, markets can be irrational longer than one can be solvent, but still, this is the way to make money.  What is your plan to take advantage of this price mismatch?  Buy the board?  Buy calls?  Plant lots of wheat?  We'll have to call you "Flash" elcheapo.  Arbitrage is what the flash traders leverage to make their money.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,780
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: wheat thoughts

[ Edited ]
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,780
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: wheat thoughts

[ Edited ]

looking at the usda reports for march 13th, Okla wheat conditions were similar to Kansas, with more wheat in the fair to worse

condition, than in the good to excellent.

also, note, the soil moisture conditions are dryer than last year.

in texas, the moisture condition may not be as critical, but, only 35% of the wheat was in good to excellent condition.

the condition index is lower now than it was last year.

in Colorado, in feb, wheat condition was only 40% good to excellent......also soil moisture conditions are worse than

last year.

 

anything else I need to explain ?

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: wheat thoughts

Took a drive to an airport wednesday cross country to Amarillo and I can say this swks, olka panhandle, texas panhandle wheat .... dryland stinks... not a good stand and poor crop several fields looking for a insurance claim.

Irrigated wheat is going to need a camera down the bovine throat to see the condition of.  It is all being consumed.

 

Which by the way means the 2017 wheat crop is having an impact on the corn consumption in the feedlots for the next few months. Between the graze out wheat acres dissappearing and the cattle inventory taking a dent to fire,  It will be interesting.

 

I did note the two large feedlots that were feeding holsteins 2 years ago are now full of good cross breed cattle headed for steaks... A good sign for grain demand.

 

Also had a call from a KC grain firm asking if there was some corn inventory in th country for May-June-July time frame.... that always feels good and says the local inventory is getting thinned out.

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 48
Registered: ‎09-01-2012
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Re: wheat thoughts

Only has to be a little too much wheat around for prices to be crappy. Large global stocks at the moment. Demand is always rising, but still, there needs to some major supply problem somewhere to see some real rises.