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02-19-2013 09:26 AM
when the worlds supply is at it's lowest supplys since the 1930's before harvest new crop what do you's think the price will be for new crop
02-19-2013 09:43 AM
There are still piles of corn in Iowa, Neb, the Dakota's and Minn.
Problem is many other areas are short but many such as the far SE part of the country the corn is cheaper to bring in from SA than the NW corn belt. So far the $7.50 area has shown demand resistance. Local areas may have spot bids 40 to 80 cents over board but might be short lived.
The price of gasoline will in my opinion be the gauge of corn prices. The alcohol industry will set the tone. If it is profitable to make ethonol the corn will get bid up, otherwise we seem to be quite range bound in the mid 7's.
By July South America will be caught up and be getting grain shipped on a timely manner. That means the South and South East US will be getting supplied with SA grain.
If the western half of the corn belt stays too dry we may get to the 8's again, otherwise LOOK out BELOW.
Just My Opinion, you asked. My perch here in South Podunk Country is not very high so my visability is limited.
02-19-2013 10:03 AM
There are not many piles of corn in North-Central Iowa that I am aware of, in fact the basis level at the local ethanol plant I sell corn too is the best that I can remember. I think we may get a rally this spring as we usually do. I think if new crop corn hits $6, the conservative thing is to make a 25% sale to the ethanol plant/end user. Then use some sort of Call Option play or other means to protect the up-side in case the drought continues and corn hits above $8 again. This opinion is worth what you paid for it, which is nothing. LOL
02-19-2013 10:13 AM
Make sure you get good financials from that ethanol plant you sell forward........ Some of them are not going to be around by summer!
02-19-2013 10:35 AM
Yes, the ethanol plant has zero debt, there land, buildings, and equipment has been paid off. I do not expect them to go under since there Capital Cost per gallon is basically zero, this makes a big difference. If I got worried, there are many other end-users such as the feed mills, the big hog guys, and of course all the local elevators to sell too. They too have very good basis levels. Also, rather than use forward contracts to sell corn, could hedge on the board and lift the hedge the day I sell/deliver the physical corn to whatever end-user I sell too. If the drought continues in Iowa for 2013, the overall Iowa State corn yield could fall from the 141bu in 2012 down to 110 to 115bu. Talk about panic city for all the corn end-users in Northern Iowa!!!!!! I got 185bu yield myself in 2012, but if the drought continues, I bet my yield will only be 120bu. However you look at it, 2013 crop year will not be boring.
02-19-2013 10:47 AM
you rite slso if wasn't for the end user's thre would be alot cheaper corn i still beleave in supply and demand if world inventory is at it's all time low in many years and i've read it would take 2yrs to 3yrs of good crops to bring up those inventories to where they should be i can't see new crop corn less than 6.00 - 8.00 this yrs crop but the other hand i'm not alway's rite thats why i'm asking for everyones 2 cnts worth
02-19-2013 10:51 AM
And then I also read in some parts of the USA some ethanol plants can't get enough steady supply of corn so there temporary shutting down also
02-19-2013 11:04 AM
I read 20 ethanol plants are shut down because they can't source corn. When the new crop comes on they will all open back up and there goes demand to match the new supply. New corn prices now are a bargain. FWIW
02-19-2013 11:07 AM
If you turn all them back on you will create 600 million bushels of demand. If you grow a trend crop on 97 million acres you will increase corn supply 4500 million bushels.
New crop corn in NOT a bargain.