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01-16-2013 08:24 PM
lot of things coming together.........
I assume TIME covered his shorts the Sunday night before the report week.........and got long.......
and we will hear about that trade in a few months..........after the fact...........
US and Russia wheat crop is in trouble...........
SA maybe isnt the golden child the bean counters thought..........
Anyone taken a look at the drought monitor for the US lately.........that thing is scary..........
So do you think I will get credit for PEAK CORN when the big print main stream ag media finally gets ahold of it............just remember Jeff and MIke...........you heard it here first...........
10 weeks and counting.........we will know a lot of things........BE ON YOUR TOES.........
01-16-2013 08:40 PM
Good post MT - ahead of the curve [as usual]
weather problems starting in SA, Australia going up in smoke, Russia wheat crop hurting, China dry, usa still in drought.....
as you know, they think you were a lucky one year wonder at the other site.......they have short memories.
good to have you off politics and back to business.
with drought here, record low inventories, weather issues worldwide - has to be more upside than downside. [i know it gets wet quicker than it gets dry, but still...]
01-16-2013 09:14 PM - edited 01-16-2013 09:25 PM
Late 2010 going into 2011 and even further if we start to pile on some bullish segments from multiple directions then we see $5.25-$5.50. In the outside chance we get a bolstered economy, weak corn and soy numbers, wheat issues, and then get into trouble with our corn and soy crop next year, we will see all time highs tested. I know a lot of people are saying that the 07' run is not like what we "might" be facing now. I agree, however in 07' the economy and oil took a pretty marginal commodity price and shoot it through the roof. I think we have more fundamental support with demand now and in the future which means a more stable price at a generally higher level. Take this an add another catalyst like increased demand with the economy, oil, or supply issues and here we go. If you look back to when commodity prices came back down to earth, most were saying here we go again, $2 corn and $5 soy. Well if you look at recent price action before the wheat run we have been well above that. That seems to indicate that while swings in price are real our overall range seems to be trending higher, and generally speaking only concrete fundamentals can drive this, not specs.
My opinion we already have two bullish segments, one is the corn number is going to be low and maybe shockingly low. Two is a half and half; the wheat issue is not done even if it stabilizes; wheat is buying acres along with cotton as we speak and the other is the economy, while we maybe treading water for awhile, I think we are just nervous with our surroundings which no longer contain unicorns and lollipops and people are just going to have to get used to it.
2.5 years and we are still kicking...........................................
any how..............be on your toes.............
01-17-2013 04:58 AM
lets see time on Nov 24 gave an explanation of eclipses and the upcoming dates of same. Gave specific recommendations of triggers to sell if certain levels were breeched and stated this ....
Markets should trend, one way or the other, from 11/30 thru the Epiphany 1/5.
My simple little macd combined with time...... well lets just say I lifted my shorts on 1-9 due to same with triggers still in place.
Thats like using google to map the direction and having an updated garmin to confirm your on the right path letting you know when you are past the road construction. as opposed to having a compass in a magnetic storm.
01-17-2013 06:05 AM
Thanks for correcting the record Eddie but you must not try to confuse MT with facts. His "rant a day" style is all the rave on this site.
The decision making process you have developed is excellent. I wouldn't post it here though as it would be ridiculed as ignoring the fictional "Peak Corn" fairy tale :-)
The markets almost always change direction on the epiphany, and they just did again. That was in our written plan last February.
Just so MT can't say that I am after the fact again, I will go on record that corn will have a post harvest rally high on 1/5/2014, probably a 30 cent rally from lows around Thanksgiving in the $4 range, but I am not a price guy. The timing and direction is far more important to anticipate.
For now MT, the very normal drought market should continue to unfold on TIME and climb back and give everyone a chance to make sales on very easy to implement triggers.
01-17-2013 08:19 AM
Should trend one way or another........earth shattering stuff........especially since we were post election, pre cliff.........
So we will see 4.........You might be right........course i think we went down this road last year, and ended up over 8 instead of 4.........
lotta guys listened to the sky is falling last winter and missed a few bucks.........
01-17-2013 12:14 PM - edited 01-17-2013 12:15 PM
since 2000 it surely hasn't been dryer this time of year in belt.
i'm not sure how to look before 2000 - maybe palmer index?
i'll pose this question for corn. when's the last time Jul/Dec was as inverted as today?..for this time of yr & any time of year?
01-17-2013 02:23 PM
was able to pull '96 Jul/Dec up on charts.+153 in Apr, +160 in May, peaked @ +187 in Jul....but was only +70 in mid-Jan. We are +130 now!.................kind a makes me go Hmmmmmm.
there is an interesting part on drought.gov called paleoclimatology - going back 2000 yrs on drought - good read.
what i got was a '50's type severity can happen "several" times a century, but a 30's scale is more like a 300-500 yr event. Pre-1200 AD they had 30's type conditions last more than a century! YIKES.
link to summary. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/drought/drght_final