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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

10% chance, huh?

Can we please throw Nate Silver and his 5:38 in the trash heap?   Don`t some people understand, if you poll democrats, then democrats do well in your poll.  There`s a little thing on all telephones these days called "caller ID" maybe some of you tech savvy folks heard of it, where if you don`t recognize a phone number, you don`t answer and let it go to voice mail (your answering machine),

13 Replies
rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

BA, do you remember those Rice A Roni commercials or whatever the name was where the announcer says that nine out of ten doctors surveyed prefer Rice A Roni side dishes, and then the cut to the ten doctors and nine of them are Chinese?

Basically what is going on with polling, and it does affect elections since some try to vote who they think is going to win......people want to identify with a winner....human nature.

sam1wiseone
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

Trump won the election phase.  Now on to the vote creation phase.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

(Can we please throw Nate Silver and his 5:38 in the trash heap?)  

Nailed it.

cmilligan1958g
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?


@sam1wiseone wrote:

Trump won the election phase.  Now on to the vote creation phase.


Well summed up, Sam. Glad to have the Supreme Court. 

elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

Remember boys... Trump said

That the election is a fraud....

Then he said he won...

So...he said, he won a fraud election.

 

Yes...I seen it with my own eyes

And heard with with my own ears.

Next you will say fake news.

 

The very foundation of this

Wonderful country is in danger

By 1 man....Donald Trump.

Im sorry folks....the truth is the

Truth....hearing such a lie like

That, last night makes me sick

And I still am.

I recieved a call a few minutes ago from a fellow I know...he is retired from military...strong trump supporter....he told me he now regreats voting for trump...he said

He watched the same thing I did,

He said he could not believe he

Said that....but he did.

 

henrikstudson
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?


@sam1wiseone wrote:

Trump won the election phase.  Now on to the vote creation phase.


With votes still need to be counted, how has he won the election phase?

cmilligan1958g
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?


@henrikstudson wrote:

@sam1wiseone wrote:

Trump won the election phase.  Now on to the vote creation phase.


With votes still need to be counted, how has he won the election phase?


 

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

After running 40,000 possible scenarios the model said a 89-10 probability that Dennison would lose. And it appears that he has indeed lost.

538 conducts no... zero...zilch..NaDa polls or surveys.

What did they miss?

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

(After running 40,000 possible scenarios the model said a 89-10 probability that Dennison would lose.)

If your a book maker or pollster like 538 and you give a 90% chance of winning or 9-1 odds it should be clear and convincing, if it's like this election and you have me a 90% chance and it's still not decided in overtime, your just a hack and 538 has proven - once again - to be a hack outfit.

If your claiming the hacks at 538 don't do anything but post information, then tell them to find someone more credible to get their information from.