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bruce MN
Advisor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

It’s neither a book maker or a pollster.

Look into how they construct the model.

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

If you want to keep supporting & quoting a hack outfit like 538, fine by me, it's not like your 538 posts were the only posts that you swung and missed on.

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

How did they miss?

It’s apparently turning out as the model showed. 

Never was anything about margins or predicting numbers. 

Tell us how you thinks it works. You seem obsessed so you obviously must have looked deeply into it. 

Edmund55
Senior Contributor

Re: 10% chance, huh?

(How did they miss?)

Asked and answered.  Again, keep supporting the hacks at 538 if you like, they're due to get one right.

Of course they should change there name to 199 or below, aka below the Mendoza line.