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2.2% Q1 growth

tax receipts down $100B, yoy,


Corporate profits down slightly yoy but up 5.6% after tax. But the Dow is up 20% over that period.


Like the Kansas Miracle, the problem may be that the sheeple won't be patient enough to see it kick in.


GOP has a huge advantage here, though. the past two recessions have only occurred after massive private sector fraud wrecked the economy and they're just now getting around to rolling back the modest Obama era protections- so may take a few years for the donor class to founder.


My guess would be a continuation of slightly disappointing growth. Risks are from the political side, like yesterday's eructations over Italy.


Corporate buybacks will offer some support to stocks but probably unable to reignite the bull.

2 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: 2.2% Q1 growth




We’re not quite at a sustained elevated growth rate of 3 percent yet, but the latest economic snapshot tells us we are knocking on the door. The growth rate over the last four quarters came in at 2.9 percent — which was higher than any of the eight years of Barack Obama’s presidency.

Halfway through this current quarter, which began on April 1, the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimates growth at 4 percent. If that persists through the end of June, we will have reached an average growth rate of 3 percent under Trump. ‎

Not bad, given that nearly every liberal Trump critic trashed Trump’s campaign forecast of 3 to 4 percent growth as an impossible dream. Economists like Larry Summers, Obama’s first chief economist, gloomily declared that we were mired in a new era of “secular stagnation” and that 3 percent growth was unachievable. Paul Krugman of The New York Times said we were more likely to see flying cars than 3 to 4 percent growth.

Now for the even better news. We are already starting to see a fiscal dividend from Trump’s pro-business tax, energy and regulatory policies. The Congressional Budget Office reports that tax revenues in April — which is by far the biggest month of the year for tax collections because of the April 15 filing deadline — totaled $515 billion. That was good for a robust 13 percent rise in receipts over last year. ‎

MoneyWeek reports that the $218 billion monthly surplus (revenues over expenditures) this April was the largest ever, with the previous record being $180 billion in 2001. (April is always the one surplus month.)

What’s the simple lesson here? More growth, more tax revenue.

But there’s another lesson, and it’s about how wrong the bean counters were in Congress who said this tax bill would “cost” the Treasury $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion in most revenues over the next decade. If the higher growth rate Trump has already accomplished remains in place, then the impact will be well over $3 trillion of more revenue and thus lower debt levels over the decade.

Putting people back to work is the best way to balance the budget. Period.



But as always the trouble is spending.



Alas, it’s not all good news in the April surprise. The inexcusable omnibus spending bill increased federal spending by some $300 billion in 2018 and we are starting to feel the impact of that splurge. Federal outlays are up 8.7 percent in April. That’s unforgivable given that Republicans run everything in Washington these days.

Veteran Advisor

Re: 2.2% Q1 growth