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Senior Contributor

42%

is the percentage of the popular vote Trump will get in 2020.

Max MOE is 2%- tightest base and most solid opposition ever.

If an R Kelly video emerges with him abusing underage girls he'll get 40, if it emerges implicating his opponent he'll get 44.

He got 46 in 2016 and skimmed to a razor tight electoral win in 2016. 44 won't do it unless his campaign can figure out a way to pull votes to third party candidates and that probably takes a Perot sized figure.

Libertarians are hot for Justin Amash but hard to see him pulling more than 5, if that.

On the left, a candidate might emerge to pick off 3-4% if Joe Biden is the D nominee but Warren or Sanders probably cut that off.

Still not enough.

Then we get to the scenario that The Founders didn't anticipate. Where does the Constitution give authority to dislodge a President, lame duck Senate and SCOTUS who don't like the results of an election?

On the bright side, might mean Farm Programs Forever for "our Patriot Farmers".

Or might not.

7 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: 42%

the takeaway from that is that if you're seriously a member of  the tiny neoliberal ag remnant then, by all means, vote for Trump.

But your vote really doesn't matter in the scheme of things.

You only matter as a meme, like pore coal miners in Appalachia.

Advisor

Re: 42%

Hard to say if somebody “knocks” him off or not. 

Senior Contributor

Point bein'

that "agriculture" is now 100% aligned with the most unpopular President in history (also the President with the most fanatical base).

Might turn out bad. I'd suggest that if anyone has depleted their stock of .223's for the AR with bunny shootin' that they get right down to Cabela's to restock.

As to the question of what the Real Deep State does with our POTUS when it appears that they're heading to a disastrous calamity, I can only wonder. Or, a lot of twists and turns in that speculation.

If something were to occur I'd suggest that folks remain calm before accepting the internet explanation, but oh well.

Senior Contributor

Re: 42%

I didn't think he'd win the last time, certainly don't think he'll win this time.   

 

Still IMO, an exceptionally unpopular president is far better than exceptionally corrupt, connected president.  

 

So Trump or Bernie might be okay.

 

Senior Contributor

Re: 42%

i.e, the most corrupt POTUS in US history is better than she who might have been number 4 or 5 in the rankings?

Because? Guns, abortion, "freedom"?

The graveyard whistlers are going to be banging out a symphony about last time and the fake polls, etc., all the way to election day.

Sorta fascinating to watch the daily trickle of info about payoffs to an offshore Kushner vehicle from the Bonesaw Kingdom (while we move to war footing on their behalf), Trump contributors getting relief from IRS etc.

That how hypernormalisation works- so much crazy stuff in the daily news cycle that nobody can get ahead of it.

Senior Contributor

Re: 42%


@ddgfs wrote:

i.e, the most corrupt POTUS in US history is better than she who might have been number 4 or 5 in the rankings?

 

That is simply your opinion Nox,  I supposed backed up by the mountains of evidence Mueller uncovered.  Smiley Indifferent

 

But even were that true,  A corrupt president hated by the legislature, both parties, and all facets of the permanent government, is a better option than an exceptionally corrupt figure who is an ally of all of those things. 

Senior Contributor

Re: 42%


@bruce MN wrote:

Hard to say if somebody “knocks” him off or not. 


Like heaven, we live in hope but hope was never a reliable contraception.