538 2012 final polling aggregate

[sdholloway56]

Romney +.3. But his face is not on the calendar at the FSA.

Just a reminder.

They're just polls, but that goes both ways.

There's an urban legend about the invincibility of DD, Bannon (lol), Parscale (lolol) based on a one off.

Although when you have a candidate up by 9 with 5 days to go and people are freaking out it doesn't say a lot for the confidence in our elections.

[sdholloway56]

The 4.4% polling error that represents is more than double '16, and unusually large.

A 4.4% polling error in favor of DD won't be quite enough without some additional rat*****ery.

[sdholloway56]

While I certainly wouldn't hang my hat on Biden winning TX, the fact that 100% of the '16 turnout will have voted by tomorrow is a whole, nuther, nuther thing.

There is room for a huge polling error and that level of turnout generally doesn't bode well for Republicans (why do you think they work so hard to keep people from voting?) or for an incumbent unless they are hugely popular. This one most definitely is not.

[bruce MN]

in the Rio Grande Valley. McAllen/Edinburgh.

Sister and Brother-in-law (the one who danged to near died with COVID) have been working at their polling location.

They say that the turnout is spectacular. B in L has been doing this for years, and Texas holds a ton of off year elections so been a poll worker there a lot. He says that he would have known 75% of the people who came through in their precinct in any past election and puts it at 10-15% this go-round. 

They also say that much of  where the big numbers are coming from is more young people voting and who are also bringing their previously non-voting parents with them.  Much of the credit for that due to the state wide registration efforts headed up by Beto O’Rouke. (Early ‘28 Favorite O’Rourk, as she calls him).

[sdholloway56]

"Doing better with blacks and Latinos than against Clinton" appears to be a real thing.

Although turnout for Clinton was abysmal and if you lose 10% but turn out 50% more at the same proportion, well.

If TX gets 120% of '16 turnout I'm skeptical that there is a huge number of uneducated white men to be found out in the bushes.

[sdholloway56]

I see where Nate has moved OH and IA back into the lean R category and I think that's appropriate despite some interesting individual polling. People don't change much, but they're definitely within range if turnout is high.

But he's down to a 10% chance for DD, because it is all about the calendar now. I was really wondering if he'd hedge and stay up at 11 or more just in case.

I do note that now the GQP is saying that if DD loses, Our Amy should throw this one out and schedule a new one.

The Founders wrote a secret Mulligan Codicil on the back of the 2nd Amendment.

[sdholloway56]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321945814877556741

Very large CCEs survey has it 3% better for DD with AA's, and about 6 pts better with Hispanics.

But 9 pts. worse with whites.

Without extreme vote suppression- and the opposite seems to be the case- that means sayonara, Trump-san.