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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

900k excess deaths

for the US in the year following the first confirmed Covid death.

IHME conclusion is that other causes are about a wash- therefore it iscapproximately the Covid number.

We may see a longer bump in mortality from oft cited factors such as cancer and heart disease where diagnosis and treatment were delayed. But that’s mostly downstream.

Given the fact that in 1918 interventional care was a net negative, justtheflu has been worse, and continues.

Nice job, guys.

17 Replies
sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 900k excess deaths

Even though they were just making it up as they went in the first wave, a fair number of the hospitalized survived.

By now about 4X better survival even before younger, healthier people became a larger share recently.

Virtually 100% would have died in 1918.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: 900k excess deaths

Studies suggest that around 100M Americans have been infected, thus an IFR of around 1%.

From these numbers you can conclude that the “let ‘er rip” strategy would have killed at least a couple million.

 

rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: 900k excess deaths

Where did you get the 900,000 number? I just did a google and came up with anywhere from 300,000 more deaths in 2020 than in 2019, to 350,000 more as the numbers are still being tabulated.

Part of the increase would be normal attrition, as the population increases, and as the aged become a bigger % of the population.

Did you use the same sources that gave joebiden 81 million votes?

rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

He wrote "IHME conclusion"  as in the "Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation" at the University of Washington, Seattle, only the premier research institute of its kind in the world.

  But don't worry, you won't read about them on Red State or Daily Caller. 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

IHME, and others, just astonishd me with the accuracy of their projections.

Particularly the one where the line went in the opposite direction of the one on the chart Gooby posted.

It gets a lot trickier from here- vaccinations, variants, regionalization of vaccine refusal etc.

rsbs
Veteran Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

I am going to call out a tentative "BS" on the 900,000 deaths that are caused in the USA by covid.

The true metric would be to look at year to year deaths,  and see the increase, and then look at what natural increased attrition would be. If the researchers can't see that, I would not waste time in even reading the rest of their analysis. 

It gets back to classifying those dying "with"  covid as having died "of" covid.

There is not going to be a 900,000 year to year death increase from covid. At least not from 2019 to 2020.

 

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

Gooby's wrong way dotted line should have been enough for her to slink off in shame.

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: The 900,000 number has been reported all week.

A large variance, but not of the 10X magnitude when researchers started poking around Puerto Rico after Maria.