AZ hits 20% positive test rate today

[sdholloway56]

which means the thing isn't going to peak for several weeks even if mandatory or voluntary distancing and mask use is increased sharply.

I'm just guessing it will be the worst- maybe Las Vegas, if it gets rolling, is as AC dependent. And much more concerning as far as the capacity to quickly spread beyond. 

[sdholloway56]

40K MAGAs also in a secondary convention center at Tulsa?

Math says of the 20K in the arena, 100 will be actively shedding virus, 20 will be super spreaders who will infect dozens each.

Then they all go home to where ever. Could probably get 10K or more cases just out of this.

Hoo boy.

[sdholloway56]

Looking at states reporting it looks like we're on track for another 25-27K day.

Other things entered in but a bit surprised that the "market" was weak today. Reporting is light on weekends and they could do "who, me worry?" until at least Tuesday.

V shaped recovery, baby!

[sdholloway56]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1273701416360726529

Is that Turdy in the front row?

[sdholloway56]

The mega-thousand TX numbers always roll in late.

Don't know if that's just a function of their data collection or some effort to keep it off the evening news cycle so that more people will go out and spend some cash before they die.

[sdholloway56]

FLA hits new highs 5 out of 7 days with a grand slam of 4078 cases to clear the bases at the end of the week.

15% positive test rate.

Durn protesters!

The 3-4 week lag on these things is a function of the fact that not a lot of people get infected in the initial event but then they fan out to others, who fan out to others. About the third degree of separation is where you detect exponential growth.

Deaths trail cases by about 3 weeks, although given the younger average age of Wave 1 Spike 2, the rates won't be as high until they start spreading it to older and more vulnerable people. And hopefully some of what's been learned in interventional care will reduce mortality.

That's why it is a capital idea to slow the thing down for as long as you can.