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Actual good question

What if Tesla is just another car company?

When the abstraction premium comes off:

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/13/business/tesla-price-cuts/index.html

9 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Actual good question

If in 1980 you knew that a tech boom was coming in 15 years, but didn`t know specifics, many would probably have bought stock in Radio Shack and held on to it like a bulldog.   This stuff is always changing.  Then look at John Deere, they made 2 cylinder, hand clutch tractors way to long, shunned rotary combines and quad tracks.  Yet farmers stuck with the Green.   The other green, Oliver had 6 cylinder engines in the 30`s and innovative hydraulics and today they are antiques.  

Tesla has the name (like DeKalb winged corn ear).  Tesla also has the advantage of being the most serviceable, dealer network ect .  As greater minds predict, Tesla will go back to penny stock status, but competitors will go broke, probably bought out by Tesla.  

Musk is diversified The Boring Company, Space X .... Twitter if you count that as an asset.   I think with the cozy government satellite agreements, the US military industrial complex needs Musk, therefore sweetheart advantages could be extended to Tesla in the bargain.

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Actual good question

KGBA, have I reminded you that you’re an idiot yet today?

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Actual good question

If you ever have anything of substance to add, please alert us of that.

Re: Actual good question

Those Dekalb wings.

I was a Dekalb seed dealer for a good stretch in the 90’s/early ‘00’s. Back when there were individual dealers before Monsanto moved pretty much everything to hub dealers and the agronomy supply sector. Could have kept going with a 400K infrastructure project on the home place but declined.  A friend up at the other end of the county did and has done very well….happy for him and an admirer of his accomplishments.

But as it relates to this when I started the Wings were just coming off a regional bust after a highly promoted 105 day hybrid had been a huge oversold washout. We sold a few bags of new hybrids to friends, probably out of sympathy. In a couple of years they came out with a couple of killer yield numbers from 95-110 and it became like shooting fish in a barrel. The burgeoning consultant agronomist culture essentially did the selling. Particularly in light of the fact that a generation of Big P hybrids that would green-snap if somebody driving by would sneeze out the window. 

So, yeah, it can come and go.  But a bunch of  highly complicated matters piled on top of each other can make it really tough. Elmo is mortally xxxxed. It’s just that nobody, among the likely very few people that he might trust ,has told him yet.

 

Packard27
Senior Contributor

Re: Actual good question

 

Tesla’s value currently represents about 1.5% of the overall S&P 500 Index. It is a top 10 company within the index. By coincidence, Elon Musk’s car company is valued today only slightly higher in the index than what the ill fated Enron enjoyed at its highest level during the early days of the new century.

I have never understood Tesla (or Crypto), its popularity, or its numbers, but if it should ever go Kaput, at least a diversified investment portfolio should limit the overall damages. Or at least, that is what happened to diversified investors when Enron collapsed.

Crazy times. Crazy people. Crazy investment propositions, All of which is why one never sells the farm.

 

sdholloway56
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Actual good question

Classic short squeeze dynamics were in play for years.

There is no difference between being early and being wrong.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Actual good question

Elon is a brilliant man, no one can honestly take that from him.  However, history is littered with other brilliant men whose timing failed to line up.  Tesla caught the tsunami of going from $2 to $400, that is a lot of capital to do smart things with to weather the inevitable hangover.  Did Musk make the right moves?  Time`ll tell.     Ironically it could be twitter will be the thing that keeps Tesla afloat, I`m not predicting it, but wouldn`t exactly be shocked.  

A good logo is everything, I was at a farm show and Legend seeds had a fastball challenge.  If you threw 2 fastballs within 2mph of each other you would win a cap.   I threw a 90mph smoker and then a 91 mph greased lightening and won a cap with a giant "L" on it (for Legend seed)  it`s probably a good seed, but I`m not inclined to wear a cap with a L on it (Loser)  😀   In full disclosure, I did not throw a 90mph smoker, both pitches were more like 45mph  ... but they both add up to 90mph, right?  

Packard27
Senior Contributor

Re: Actual good question

 

Gee BA,

If I had not waited to read the final sentence of your post I was getting ready to reply that you were throwing some serious MLB fire back in the day.

Tally ho,😁

gh2002gh
Senior Contributor

Re: Actual good question

(Tesla’s value currently represents about 1.5% of the overall S&P 500 Index. It is a top 10 company within the index. By coincidence, Elon Musk’s car company is valued today only slightly higher in the index than what the ill fated Enron enjoyed at its highest level during the early days of the new century.

I have never understood Tesla (or Crypto), its popularity, or its numbers, but if it should ever go Kaput, at least a diversified investment portfolio should limit the overall damages. Or at least, that is what happened to diversified investors when Enron collapsed.

Crazy times. Crazy people. Crazy investment propositions, All of which is why one never sells the farm.)

 

Tesla is a ponzi scheme that has used false numbers and China's vacuum of verifiable information to keep it running.   

Many of average intellect could be a multi billionaire when contracting with the Pentagon and the Hill for kickback agreements.  He didn't build anything in the free market. That tells you all you need to know.  

 

On crypto, did you see the recent spike?  In times past that is always followed with fraud in the exchanges hitting the news.

They like to pump so the news is ignored.  Coinbase was caught doing this in house.  FTX etc.... But what most don't understand yet, is that these major exchanges are all invested in each other through various shell entities.  It's one big ponzi. 

 

Watch what happens to Silvergate and Signature banks who were banking these criminals enterprises over the next couple weeks.   Shorting can be very dangerous.  But some well places puts limits the downside and can really pay out.  Silvergate popped to ~ $22 a few weeks ago on an attempted short squeeze.  Puts I placed paid out over 1000% when it dropped to ~ $11 the next day. 😂

They both report Tuesday. We'll see if they're honest in how screwed they really are.  

The crypto pump tells me more bad exchange news incoming.   Silvergate's anti money laundering officer shutting off her social media is a pretty solid sign my February puts placed Friday are going to pay.