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hardnox
Advisor

Ambrose

Always something interesting. Worth a read for anyone who's serious. I expect 3 hits.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/09/07/us-recession-jitters-stoke-fears-off-impotent-fed-and...

 

"We have to contemplate the rather alarming possibility that Congress will fail to act. There is so much animosity, and that is what is scary," said David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution.

 

 

4 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

Re: Ambrose

This is the most likely candidate for what is going to kick off the Great Turning.

 

The business cycle turns and any adequate response is gridlocked.

 

That might even be forestalled a bit longer under a Trump presidency if you're to assume his agenda is to be Bush on Steriods- high end tax cuts and military spending.

 

Although of all the ways to run a deficit, giving tax cuts to the highest earners is the least stimulative- multiplier probably well below 1.

 

But if social justice must prevail, so be it.

 

BTW, if the US financial system is to be permanently destroyed, by far the most likely scenario would be a deflationary depression where tax revenues collapse, spending can't fall nearly as quickly and you end up with much worse deficits than if you'd mounted a fiscal response in the first place.

 

But at that point you're already behind the curve and cooked.

 

There's the opportunity to totally remake the country that Free Market Leninists have been working toward. Although starting from 0 is a lot tougher than it would appear when you were sitting in a cushy office and had money in the bank (what bank, what market?)

RJG640v8
Senior Contributor

Re: Ambrose

and then it will be off to another War................ the ultimate stimulus.

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: Ambrose

Yeah. And the stumps are pretty well all cleared. And if there were some, no slaves or excited, optimistic homesteaders to clear them ahead of "investors".  

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Ambrose

Even though it has proven to be largely without strategic value, the good thing about modern warfare is that it burns though money better than a bonfire at the mint.

 

And produces a tolerable enough number of casualties that it can continue. Except for the 100:1 sort of casualty ratios of the enemy and noncombatants, who don't count.

 

It wouldn't feel this way because we couldn't imagine what actually happened as a counterfactual case. But if we had to accept 4K+ killed in Iraq, 2K+ in AFG, it would have been better to do it in the first year and be forced to quit.

 

Would have been cheaper, anyway, and might have us not talking about v9.0.