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Esteemed Advisor

As Dr. Evil Puke tweets

The 10 yr yield is at 1.6% but it was for several months in 2016 when we had a slowdown but no recession. The yield curve is inverted because the Fed raised the short rate. So panic explicitly about that is overblown.

Although I would note a 1.6 ten year isn't exactly a vote of confidence.

I do think the market has been trying to price itself for that 3%+ growth in perpetuity and is facing a reckoning with the fact that it never got there and looks to be heading the wrong way, tax cuts and share buybacks notwithstanding.

And at some point everybody just gets tired of being tweetsawed- both the up and down get annoying. As far as the extreme moves on any utterance about China trade- the reality that, at best, there will be no deal for sometime is beginning to sink in.