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Advisor

Beginning of the eurasian century

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-290514.html

 

"In St Petersburg, from session to session and in selected conversations, what I saw were some crucial building blocks of the Chinese New Silk Road(s), whose ultimate aim is to unite, via trade and commerce, no less than China, Russia and Germany"

 

The second American Century didn't get too far. Terminal decline probably began around 2003 with the Iraq invasion with the end just now becoming apparent.

 

Biggest losers are satellites tied to US power- Japan, ROK, Phillipines, Israel. Arguably Eastern Europe although they've probably been out of the Soviet orbit long enough that they'll manage to swallow their distaste for both the Germans and Russians and manage to find a place. Old Europe outside of Germany, I guess too, as demographics and energy deficits pile on.It's hard to see much role for the UK other than as a haven for oligarchs and financial chicanery.

 

Probably not nearly that bad for the USA proper with the exception of the financial industries and multinational corporations. The key domestic matter may well be whether we'll be able to graciously accept the change in fortune or find it necessary to engage in the futlity of defending the dominance of those interests.

 

US agriculture will probably be fine if you limit that discussion to continued production of exportable surplus and don't try to expand the definition to the interests of multi-national ag corporations.

 

It's impossible to envision what a new world order that is dominated by a few hundred Russian billionaires and a few hundred thousand Chinese Communist Party millionaires will look like. And of course you can only hope that US domestic politics can manage a graceful shift to the new reality.

 

 

 

 

 

 

3 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Beginning of the eurasian century

yup, sounds like the biggest worry for our leaders right now is cost shifting medical costs. Nothing else to worry about on the horizon.

 

I wonder if the best investment right now isn't going to be those small companies that specialize in gardening supplies. WHen the SHTF people are still going to want to eat.

Advisor

Re: Beginning of the eurasian century

Well... one of the things we can't do is go back in the wayback machine and change previous decisions.

 

We possessed one of earth's great oil and gas provinces and decided to spend it on a consumer paradise. Say what you will about the Soviets, they weren't very good at that nor were the post-soviets and thus they still have a lot of it.

 

And now oil is $110 and gas to energy starved EU triple what it is in the US. Otherwise Putin would be dead or sitting in Zurich with a few hundred $million in the bank, assuming he'd gotten a cut and gotten out of town.

 

Our big run really is over but we could live very well if we could just figure out how to do a head de-inflation process with a few million of our most prominent citizens.

Advisor

Re: Beginning of the eurasian century

On the other hand, Russia is in demographic collapse (low birth rate, very high abortion rate, low life expectancy) but it really doesn't matter to the few hundred oligarchs who run it- they'll have extracted $trillions by the time it matters.

 

China could be helped by Russian energy and even by expoitation of the considerable agricultural potential of Russia. But they have their own significant problems- demographics are just starting to bite now get will get a lot tougher, water, food, natural resources in general.

 

Two areas of strategic vulnerability for the west- platinum group metals from Russia and rare earths from China. As I understand it, rare earths are present elsewhere, they just need to be developed. PGMs could be a problem and also an investment theme at some future time.

 

BTW, US demographics are a lot healthier although you might have to get used to being a minority. I'd suggest that with Russia and China as guides, the wiser strategy is to take care or our human resources.