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hardnox
Advisor

Best guesses

All guesses but this seems most likely.

 

Donald Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. Donald Trump will not be POTUS. Ergo, looks like Clinton.

 

But there's never been someone elected with that high of negatives and I doubt she'll gain more than a few Senate seats. This impending crackup is as much the fault of the DNC machine, it just hasn't been as quite as astonishing of a spectacle.

 

Following the Worst Election Season Ever, the French Army (GOP) digs in for serious trench warfare and the government locks up. The entirety of the docket is to pass ACA repeal bills, which the President vetoes, and Presidential Impeachment orders, which don't carry.

 

Enboldened by the rhetoric of the campaign, white supremacist militias swell across ruburbia and suburbia (except in the poshest suburbs, where people just quietly fund them but don't personally participate).

Stuff hasn't politely stopped in deference to the US' civil disharmonies, though. The global financial system teeters and adverse geopolitical events accelerate.

 

In the Good News category, Congress approves a $300 B bailout of agriculture as Democrats are forced to approve the measure in order to mainatin Food Stamp funding at 50% of the previous level.

 

The 2018 off year elections don't break the deadlock. The supreme court is down to 6 Justices after the not unexpected death of Ginsberg and the shocking death of Alito in a freak sex toy accident.

 

The Dow hits 3000 and unemployment reaches 25%.

 

The nighmare finally ends and the nation begins to rebuild following the election of Warren in 2020 accompanied by a Dem sweep* and the younger generation vows to never, ever, listen to anyone over 50 again because they are all idiots.

 

*Bernie wasn't in vain- he has set the inclinations of the rising generation into stone.

 

17 Replies
hardnox
Advisor

another guess

as the country heads into serious meltdown mode, mass shootings will accelerate to a rate of several per day.

 

The Great Re-Set that begins around 2020 will include some serious gun control measures. The NRA will have self-immolated in the same fashion as the current crop of billionaire political funding oligarchs.

 

A modest hot Civil War will ensue as Federal troops close in on the last half million militia holdouts.

RJG640v8
Senior Contributor

Re: Best guesses

Trump will win.

 

My wife is non political, but she can see it as well.

 

O.O interest in Hillary, every where you go, across all different spectrums.

 

Trump is flawed, but racism is alive and well and carring the day for him. There are tons of people that espouse the same blather that BA, Milligan and 3020 do here on a daily basis that are very excited to support him. Then you have the apathetics like Red and Horton who will vote for the "R" because of the "R". 

 

Turnout is the key, the dems have such a flawed candidate that it just ain't going to happen. On the other side they can't wait to vote for the guy that says out loud, in front of God and everybody, the thoughts and feelings that they themselves know better than to say out loud. 

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Best guesses

So, Hillary will win and Dems re-take the senate and things go to hell, 25% (finally admitted) unemployment and the Dow goes (where it should be) 3000.  Then Warren will "primary" Hillary and win and Dems sweep congress, because the people will actually Triple down on the 2 failed terms of Obama and your projected forthcoming failed term of Hillary???  Alrighty then, not saying you`re wrong people are pretty stupid.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Best guesses

Perhaps I have too much faith in human rationality, which is odd given the amount of time I spend here.

 

In many ways a better scenario for the collapse and re-set as it makes the path back a lot clearer. The only problem is that it will end up just being a sapper operation where they try to scorch the earth during the retreat.

 

I'd write an alternate scenario for the Trump (4) years but it exceeds the limits of my imagination.

 

Two things- don't know if the actual threat of a Trump presidency will elevate Dem turnout even if they are unenthusiastic for Clinton.

 

And I don't know how the 50% or so of Republicans who actually have something to lose will respond. A Clinton/Gingrich sort of fake rasslin' match actually serves their interests a lot better.

 

I probably answered my own question in my post about Social Mood. Even people who are doing very, very well are angry and fearful.

 

Another thing about fear and courage as the Great Unravelling gets rolling- people who openly support either candidate, but particularly Clinton (given where we live) will have to endure the real threat of ostracism and intimidation. I don't have a lot of faith in the fundamental courage of the marginally attached volk.

hardnox
Advisor

Godwin alert

As is said about the fact that by the early 30s it became fashionable to decry the Weimar Republic as Fascist.

 

It was actually just a deeply troubled constitutional republic, but that cleared the way for a for real Fascist takeover.

 

It is now your destiny to fail magnificently but you'll never admit it after the fact.

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Best guesses

PS. For the sake of your own sanity I'd suggest that you cancel your internet access and get a library card.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Best guesses

Those that are "doin` well" had better be the most worried, they have the most to lose by this country being so foolishly generous with their tax money.  Call it "racist" or whatever trips your triger, but goll dang it the pie is only so big and the more company that`s invited over, the smaller piece you`re gonna get, it`s mathematics.

 

If you want a country and world where a doctor makes the same as a bicycle repairman you probably are happy with the direction that Obama has taken the country and lament that it`s a shame that a Sanders/Warren ticket doesn`t appear to be in the cards for 2016.

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Best guesses

I suggest that you read the history of Rhodesia and South Africa, if you do you will see we are on a similar glide path.  Perhaps that is okay with you and that is fine, when they come at you with a machete you can tell them how you voted for Obama and maybe they`ll keep you around for entertainment, who knows?

hardnox
Advisor

Re: Best guesses

I imagine that old folks have not failed sufficiently (as far as providing a rational Body Politic to direct the nation) for it to be time for a Sanders/Warren ticket.

 

But I always favor doing things the easy way- via our constitutional electoral system- as opposed to having to face the end of the Republic before we can move forward.