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Chinese demographics

Interesting, a snip: 


The Census Bureau predicts that China’s population will peak in 2026, just 14 years from now. Its labor force will shrink, and its over-65 population will more than double over the next 20 years, from 115 million to 240 million. It will age very rapidly. Only Japan has aged faster -- and Japan had the great advantage of growing rich before it grew old. By 2030, China will have a slightly higher proportion of the population that is elderly than western Europe does today -- and western Europe, recall, has a higher median age than Florida.


China’s Challenges

China, notoriously, has another demographic challenge. The normal sex ratio at birth is about 103 to 105 boys for every 100 girls. In China, as a result of the one-child policy and sex- selective abortion, that ratio has been 120 boys for every 100 girls. From 2000 to 2030, the percentage of men in their late 30s who have never been married is projected to quintuple. Eberstadt doesn’t believe that having an “army of unmarriageable young men” will improve the country’s economy or social cohesion.

Foreign-policy thinkers can often lose sight of demographic trends, Eberstadt says, because from a policy makers’ view “they tend to look really glacial. If it’s not happening in the next 48 to 72 hours, it’s not in the inbox.” But “population change gradually and very unforgivingly alters the realm of the possible.”

1 Reply
Senior Contributor

Re: Chinese demographics

How soon do you suppose they'll start implementing social security and medicare?  All jokes aside, China will be a very interesting country to watch over the next couple of decades.  The most alarming thing to me is the amount of disposable men they have at their fingertips if/when the next World war is waged. 


The one thing I've never really understood about the one child policy is why exactly most families opt for a son?  Knowing other couples are doing the same, wouldn't it make more sense to want a girl?  She could have her pick of the litter of the richest and most powerful in China.  This could easily translate into a better life for the parents eventually.