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Climate change and food production/ NYT

 

A hot button issue for many here but regardless of opinion I'd expect we'll be hearing more of this sort of talk, at least until we put together a very good global crop for a couple of years in a row or alternatively until we have a real disaster in the North America crop before stocks get rebuilt (then heaven knows what we'll be talking about).

 

At this juncture option B looks more likely.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/05/science/earth/05harvest.html?ref=business

 

As to extreme weather, we had a couple of mega tornadoes in my neighborhood in the late 60s early 70s; '73 was a wet spring/early frost disaster; '80,'83 and '88 all had extended periods of 100 degree temps- I'm not sure that we've had more than a ccouple of 100 degree days since. The '90s were a train wreck for us with '91, '95 '96 and '97 all producing well below average crops.

 

Since '98 we haven't had a bad crop, some better than others. Different histories for folks in different regions, for sure.

 

My opinion as to midwest corn/soy production- yields have clung very close to the rising trend for all of those 13 years. My own guess is that we've actually just been through an unusually benign weather period and history would indicate that it probably won't last forever. Woe to all if we his a trend minus 20 year before stocks get rebuilt.

 

Of course the future corn trend chart that the NCGA/RFA lobbyists showed congress in support of ethanol legislation says no worries- it just keeps going up at an accelerating.

 

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/graphics/cornyld.pdf