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r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Corn

Things are starting to happen here. Hooked to the moldboard plow yesterday and turned a 40 acre field of sod covered with cow poo. Fertilizer being spread every where. Haven't seen any NH3 wagons going past yet but they will as soon as it warms up a little.

 

As far as acreage, who knows, the USDA just reaches up there arse and grab a number. Hopefully it is high, we will need every acre so we don't shut down the end users. March 31 is a long time from harvest, no matter what they say it will change multiple times before the combines are washed off this fall. Their numbers make for a lot of drama but not many people pay much attention to them any more, they have proven their incompetence over and over.

Milligan Hay - Iowa d:^)
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn


@r3020 wrote:

Things are starting to happen here. Hooked to the moldboard plow yesterday and turned a 40 acre field of sod covered with cow poo. Fertilizer being spread every where. Haven't seen any NH3 wagons going past yet but they will as soon as it warms up a little.

 

As far as acreage, who knows, the USDA just reaches up there arse and grab a number. Hopefully it is high, we will need every acre so we don't shut down the end users. March 31 is a long time from harvest, no matter what they say it will change multiple times before the combines are washed off this fall. Their numbers make for a lot of drama but not many people pay much attention to them any more, they have proven their incompetence over and over.


That is what I worry about the most, but in the livestock end of things, the most.  Without a doubt, a LOT of the cow herds have dissappeared this winter and that left a lot of hay uneaten.  Eventually, with all the hay and pasture land being converted to row crops and the cow numbers going into record low numbers, this will end up having the meat processing plants not being able to find numbers to keep their doors open.... so they will permanantly shut down.

 

Later, if corn and bean prices start to tank, there will be no infrastructure around to even offer any market to livestock producers.... then the prices will tank, or that might be an opportunity for the small lockers and processors to take care of what few animals are going to be left.

 

Most livestock producers are looking for a way to retire and the young guys are not going to get into the business.  The entire livestock industry might end up extinct.... much to the joy of the Humane Society of the United States (HSUS).

schnurrbart
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn

Where have you been??  Unless it is used as a draw, steaks (ribeye, filet, porterhouse) are all $11.99 and up right now and have been for a year or two.  Don't you raise beef?  it will only cost you what it takes to fatten on and processing.  As much of a survivalist as you are, you can probably do the processing yourself and eat good for little cash.

Milligan Hay - Iowa d:^)
Veteran Advisor

Re: Corn


@schnurrbart wrote:

Where have you been??  Unless it is used as a draw, steaks (ribeye, filet, porterhouse) are all $11.99 and up right now and have been for a year or two.  Don't you raise beef?  it will only cost you what it takes to fatten on and processing.  As much of a survivalist as you are, you can probably do the processing yourself and eat good for little cash.


I have to admit that I have not even looked to buy a steak since... I don't know when.  We did have a steer in the freezer some time back, but they are now worth too much to think about keeping one back for ourselves.

 

Deer are plentiful and are "free" for the taking, and taste pretty good too.

 

I do get one of those rotisserie chickens once in a while and whatever else is on sale.

 

Yes... we can raise our own food if things do go the "Mad Max" route.  I wonder what the folks in the big towns are going to do if the bottom falls out, altogether.

r3020
Senior Advisor

Re: Corn


@schnurrbart wrote:

Where have you been??  Unless it is used as a draw, steaks (ribeye, filet, porterhouse) are all $11.99 and up right now and have been for a year or two.  Don't you raise beef?  it will only cost you what it takes to fatten on and processing.  As much of a survivalist as you are, you can probably do the processing yourself and eat good for little cash.


Better get it now Bart, heading a lot higher. Cattle here are quoted at $1.15 on the hoof. Out west they are $1.20 and above.

 

Craig, I haven't watched kill numbers for more than a year. With fats this high and feeders up also I don't see why the cow calf guys would be cutting back.

GreaTOne_65
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn

They aren't, Craig just can't get anybody to buy his hay, after they found out he'd screwed 'em by throwing in some old sh*t stained hay.

Milligan Hay - Iowa d:^)
Veteran Advisor

Re: Skid Marks


@GreaTOne_65 wrote:

They aren't, Craig just can't get anybody to buy his hay, after they found out he'd screwed 'em by throwing in some old sh*t stained hay.


The only thing that is sh*t stained is your underwear, Dale ole boy.

GreaTOne_65
Senior Contributor

Re: Skid Marks

My, my, my! Touched a little nerve did I!? You have no one to blame but your own big mouth!? What you did was precisely what I would expect from a person such as yourself. With all your professed intelligence, not to smart, and you think people like you should run this government? Bushillt! What kind of foreign policy would you have? Just the like moron Obama replaced, out to screw 'em at every opportunity? Honesty is obviously not one of your virtues, Craig. Can you at least sell wood with out screwing the customers?

GoredHusker
Senior Contributor

Re: Corn

There's two reasons the cow calf guy has been cutting back.  We literally have the smallest cow herd in six decades.  First, the average age of the rancher is getting really long in the tooth.  The reason for this is the fact that cow calf pairs are very labor intensive in terms of profit potential.  A lot of cow calf guys try to clear $100 per head on their calves.  300 cow calf pairs nets only $30,000.  Second, there's been increased competition for grassland from crop production.  Grass here sold a couple months ago for $470 an acre.  Here, it takes roughly 10 acres per pair for six months.  These so called high dollar feeder cattle already have nearly 400-500 bucks against them just for summer pasture.  It will take another 150-200 bucks to get the cow through the winter on stalks.  Now, we're nearing 600-700 bucks against this calf.  After taking into account the costs for bulls, vaccine, death loss, etc.; we're right back to around 100 bucks a head profit.   

 

There aren't very many of us cow calf producers left.  Guys that still own grass around these parts only want to run yearlings on grass and then sell them in the fall.  Heifer calves are just valuable enough that most don't want to take on the risk of keeping them for breeding purposes if things fall apart.  The general thought around here is that we're nearing the peak of things before disaster hits.  The grain markets and feed costs aren't making anyone comfortable enough to start rebuilding herds.  With the low value of the dollar, we're not bringing in the amount of feeders from Mexico and Canada.  This is exaggerating the shortage.