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Senior Advisor

Doom Loop?

First part is pretty high probability- vaccination continues to lag by 1-2 mos. even after Biden accelerates it. The UK variant strain- 1.7X more contagious- becomes dominant by March. Deaths top 700K by late Spring*.

I won't handicap the second part. "The economy" does not recover under that burden. The assumption is that Congress and the Fed will just keep stoking it with as much as it takes for as long as it takes.

At some point the nation will struggle under a permanent level of impairment.

China overtakes the US economy by 2025, 3 years sooner than predicted.

*don't even want to think about what happens if another mutation proves resistant to the current vaccine. Although I assume with what is in place a new vaccine could be produced in months. Still.

1 Reply
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Doom Loop?

China has a debt and demographic problem...they don`t even have the cheapest slave labor in the world anymore 

Ten countries with the cheapest labor force
  1. Uganda - $ 22 annually. Uganda is a developing country with a population of 37.8 million people.
  2. Georgia - $ 96 annually. ...
  3. Cuba - $ 108 annually. ...
  4. Kyrgyzstan - $ 181 annually. ...
  5. Bangladesh - $ 228 annually. ...
  6. Tanzania - $ 240 annually. ...
  7. Gambia - $ 317 annually. ...
  8. Venezuela - $ 361 annually. ...


If the US (and the rest of the developed world) are in a stimulus check dependent loop, who is China going to suck off?