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Veteran Advisor

Re: Getting Out

The  whispered   story   being  ''' Margin  Debt  ''''  musical  chair  circus  ''''  and   the  chickens  are   coming  to  roost   -    -    -

 

History  tells  U$   this  -

 

2000 - Margin  debt   March  / 2000   -   $275.8  Billion

 

2007 - Margin  Debt   July  / 2007     -    $381.4   Billion

 

2017 -  Margin  debt    April  / 2017   -   ''''  513.  Billion  ''''

 

A   associate of  mine  said  a  friend  refinanced  his  house  and  took  equity  to  buy  G.  E.  stock  due  to  their  '''  dividend  '''  payout - - - 

That  was  December  of  2017   -     NOW  WHAT   -  he  ask's  ? 

 

EXPERT - ISM    -   Your  Call  -   -   -    

Senior Contributor

Re: Getting Out

As a rule I don't discuss investing, trading, or business matters with anyone its not directly related to.  Just the way I was raised, keep your cards to your chest, don't be a bragger, don't be a whiner.

Highlighted
Senior Contributor

Re: Getting Out

Jens,

 

You are not asking, but I would recommend a reading of Burton Malkiel’s Random Walk Down Wall Street (1973). It has a been updated over the years, but Professor Malkiel’s research and lessons remain the same.

 

That is, do not try to time markets because they are just too d*mn and counfoundingly unpredictable. It follows that 99% of us ordinary amateurs should probably ignore all of the so called learned advice of TV business channel experts and Wall Street Journal prognosticators. Pointendly, the track records of these highly paid personalities are oftentimes worse then terrible. Besides, if any one of them had actual insight into future market moves, you can be assured that they would not be sharing such priceless information with either you or me. Instead of heeding their “free advice,” you might be better off just flipping an honest coin when making your most critical market investment decisions.

 

As an alternative, consider buying into something as boring as a cheap S&P 500 or Wilshire 5000 index fund and then acquire a personal 10-15 year horizon on how long you will stay invested. Any additional money you might need before this somewhat lengthy period of time might best be left in US Treasuries and high quality, low cost bond index funds.

 

Let time and diversification be your friend. Otherwise, remember this historical tidbit: Between October 1929 and July 1933 the Dow Jones lost 88% of its total value. It took the Great Depression, WW II and another 21 years for the Dow to return to its 1929 high. Moral: Sometimes markets can go down a whole lot farther than most of us think. And when they do, sometimes they can also stay down for a whole lot longer than most of us realize.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Getting Out

Packard  -  great  message  -  in  other  words  a  hefty  home  mortgage to  play  the  markets,  could  be  a  loose  canon  -  -  - 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Getting Out

BA  -  Jerome  Powell  seems  to  be  a whipping  boy - somewhat  -   -   -

 

Paul Volcker  had  more  of  an  impressive , historical,   lifetime  lasting  reality  check  -    -    - 

 

Prop  Rule  or  proprietary  forms  2018    -  KARMA   unannounced  -    -    -