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Frequent Contributor

Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

and couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.

Public opinion has shifted on the matter and the WH and Senate will be decided in the suburbs, not American Carnage land.

Not sure who initially devises this stuff  (heard it here first) but the House GOP leadership is telling its members that their message is to be that mass shootings are a product of left wing violence. That'll actually sell for most of the members through their primaries and into the General in the most gerrymandered districts, but it is a loser at the margins, where it matters.

Gonna be interesting to see what Moscow Mitch has up his sleeve when the Senate comes back from recess, and what Dennison does.

35 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

Everything is tough for the GOP after years of public education and nightly news plus cable constantly lying about them.

People that can't or won't balance a checkbook, people that believe in fairy tales about the climate, people that believe things coming from the government are actually free, people believe the low unemployment rates are bad, people that believe an economy way better than Obama's is headed for recession are all indicative of massive mis-information by the left and the success the left has in corrupting the country.

Senior Advisor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

Mean while throw the Constitution on the floor and walk on it.

Frequent Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

Hhhm.

The landmark McDonald and Heller SCOTUS cases (The Honorable Justice Scalia offering the majority opinion) clearly stated that it is within the government's constitutional scope to regulate gun ownership by people who pose an excess public risk and to ban public ownership of excessively lethal weapons. Although I guess the activist court could go out and grab a case to establish further precedent*.

BTW, I'm actually more than pleased that the Gun Absolutists are going to fight this to the last twitch of their cold, dead fingers. There are plenty of people who have guns and look favorably upon ownership but have had enough with the mass shootings.

Good news for you is that law enforcement appears to be scooping up a bunch of potential mass shooters. Maybe there won't be a spate going into the election, which would work to your advantage. Might even be one that could credibly be spun as LW in nature. 

But logic would suggest that the craziness that seems to spur it will only increase over the next 15 months.

*Chief Justice Roberts does appear to be keen to protect the institutional legacy of SCOTUS and may be cautious in regards to undertaking things that increase the likelihood of their getting court packed out of the majority.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

The problems need to be better defined -- it isn't just a "gun problem".  The potential solutions need to be better supported -- potential solutions to school killings might not be the same as potential solutions to other killings -- mass killings are not all the same, mass killings are not the same as other killings.  Has gun/ammunition control worked for Chicago?  Did previous gun bans actually help? 

For much of the discussion, the devil is in the details -- define "people who pose an excess public risk", and define "excessively lethal weapons" -- if that's too much, don't start in the middle somewhere, define the boundaries.  Once the parameters are established (clearly is or clearly isn't, and clear to BOTH sides), the rest is discussion, negotiation or persuasion, and eventual compromise.  Some lines cannot be acceptably crossed without giving up basic rights and freedoms, but the lines are often murky.

Frequent Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

Like I said, I'm not trying to convince anyone- in fact I'm delighted by as much obstructionism and hysteria as possible.

I'm just observing that there's a shift in tide in the places where the electoral battle will be fought.

I think that the GOP will generally obfuscate and obstruct through the primary season, for obvious reasons, then make some sort of token shift going into the General.

If this place is a decent sample I assume that even GOP support of a ban on bump stocks and suppressors will result in a mass defection to the Libertarian candidate.

If the Libertarians can find a candidate who will support full automatic weapons and RPGs I imagine he could gt 10% easy.

 

Veteran Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

 

A study of firearm homicide and suicide rates in the 10 years after California simultaneously mandated comprehensive background checks for nearly all firearm sales and a prohibition on gun purchase and possession for persons convicted of most violent misdemeanor crimes found no change in the rates of either cause of death from firearms through 2000.

The study, which posted online Oct. 12 as in press at the journal Annals of Epidemiology, was conducted by the Violence Prevention Research Program (VPRP) at UC Davis and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. It compared observed annual firearm homicide and suicide rates in California over 10 years following enactment of comprehensive background check and misdemeanor violence prohibition policies in 1991 with expected rates based on data from 32 control states that did not have these policies and did not implement other major firearm policies during the same time.

“In the 10 years after policy implementation, firearm suicide rates were, on average, 10.9 percent lower in California than expected, but we observed a similar decrease in non-firearm suicide,” said Garen Wintemute, professor of emergency medicine and director of the Violence Prevention Research Program at UC Davis, senior author on the study.

“This suggests that the policies’ estimated impact on firearm suicide may be part of broader changes in suicide risk around the time that the California policies were implemented,” he said.

The study found no net difference between firearm-related homicide rates before and during the 10 years after policy implementation.

Frequent Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

Yes, the national homicide rate did fall precipitously during the 90s and remains relatively low by modern standards, even if it is up in some segments such as white males in SYG states.

But people are simply sick of getting up in the morning and finding out that another troubled individual* went on a rampage with an assault weapon.

*not exactly the same thing as "mental health".  I'll gladly give half the blame to the internet, where there are places that are greenhouses for growing all the grievances.

But actually the constitutional questions arising around doing something about that are a lot more profound than doing something about reducing access to the most lethal weapons- which the SCOTUS says the constitution permits.

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

And anyway, what I am saying is that I don't want any of you guys abandoning gun absolutism at this late date, in fact I want you to dig in.

Veteran Contributor

Re: Gunz are a tough one for the GOP

I think you just said, just do something even if it won't work.