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Advisor

I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

and ending up with 3. Which is problematic in our non-parliamentary electoral system, but nonetheless.

 

1) the Bubba Party takes about half the present GOP and 15% of the Dems. Strong in the south.

 

2) Country Club Party takes the other half of the GOP plus another 15% of the Dems- basically the DLC true believers.

 

3) The Other Party- the remnant of the Dems- heavily minority and white liberals.

 

Looking at electoral math I don't see any of those coalitions regularly and easily getting to 273.

 

Bubbas do well in the south and probably the most dependably. Others in some of the big states, CCers here and there.

 

 

13 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

I agree, but the 'country clubbers" are a very tiny fraction of the GOP, they are basically "Democrats that just only want lower taxes".  Someone like Hillary that would throw them a bone on lower tax rates on their $500,000 salary would easily win them over, but that`s maybe 10% tops..alot of them are already Democrats.   They like their Hollywood lifestyle and abortions and dope and gay stuff, it`s just they don`t want to only keep a dime out of every dollar that they "earn" and send 90¢ of the rest to the government. 

 

I think we`re seeing indentity politics having another wave, like in the 70`s you had "white flight" out of urban areas. You`ll see that now with especially Democrats that have finally given their party a last chance to turn around only to go to Democrat events and feeling like the only human in a Star Wars bar scene.  They might have to suck it up and learn to love the gun and embrace rugged individualism but they will feel more at home in the GOP.

 

Trump has show the false paradigm of "conservatism vs liberalism"  Bush etal have made conservatism to mean "free trade, more wars, open borders, crony capitalism"  and speaking for myself I`ve never been for any of that crap that conservatives are supposed to be in favor of, I don`t get too goose pimply over Reagan either, the man does not live up to his myth.

 

But I can see Kasich and Rubio and Karl Rove and Jeb and Mitt all jumping ship at some point and easily becoming Democrats.  But most of us in the GOP base have calloused hands and dirty fingernails.

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Senior Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing


@hardnox wrote:

and ending up with 3. Which is problematic in our non-parliamentary electoral system, but nonetheless.

 

1) the Bubba Party takes about half the present GOP and 15% of the Dems. Strong in the south.

 

2) Country Club Party takes the other half of the GOP plus another 15% of the Dems- basically the DLC true believers.

 

3) The Other Party- the remnant of the Dems- heavily minority and white liberals.

 

Looking at electoral math I don't see any of those coalitions regularly and easily getting to 273.

 

Bubbas do well in the south and probably the most dependably. Others in some of the big states, CCers here and there.

 

 


In that case the presidency will be decided by the house after the new congress is installed.

Highlighted
Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

Probably not going to happen in this cycle although if it does it would definitely be a "pass the popcorn" moment.

Highlighted
Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

If there's a third party candidacy this time- either Trump or anti-Trump- it is too late to get on most ballots and will probably just serve as a spoiler.

 

The GOP establishment has already decided that they prefer a strategy where they hold the Senate and lose the WH to a Trump presidency.

 

The problem will be how they reconstitute the party afterwards. I'm thinking the folks they've been beating like rented mules for 40 years aren't coming back.

 

The Country Club Party with the GOP plus DLC establishments would nicely unite the people who have been running everything. Although that gets really interesting as the DLC/Clinton faction of the dem party have been just as bad or worse in terms of bringing suckers to the game.

 

The good news, boys and girls, is that it almost certainly guarantees that the chump class of each party is farther apart than ever so the likelihood of torches and pitchforks remains nil. If chump whites and minorites actually acknowledged that their plights are similar, lookout.

 

"Evangelicals", I guess, have to gravitate toward the Bubba Party, which would create an interesting mix of nativism and social conservatism. My guess is that it shakes out more like a Euro Skinhead party- maybe 30% and important in some coalitions but unlikely to rule.

 

Still sounds like about a 1/3 three way split to me.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

Most people on both sides by now understand that a 3rd party is a "throw away vote" that you only have the luxury of doing if you don`t see much difference in the 2 mainstream candidates.  Most Bernie supporters will suck it up and vote for Hillary..oh a few will pout and write in Gus Hall or whatever, but most will vote against Trump or whatever Republican assuming the voting time doesn`t interfere with meeting their dealer. 

 

Most Republicans will support Kasich or Big Ears when the dust settles as a vote knapper against Hitlery.  Oh we`ll bitch but we all pretty much go to our teams..."this one last time because the other side is soooo bad". 

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Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

I still think the D nominee will be Bernie.

 

Obama stuck the knife in Clinton's back at just the right time. Too early and there's time to regroup, too late and, well, too late. Can't recover if she's already got the nomination sewn up.

 

If nothing too terrible happens in the next 10 months Obama will have a decent, middlin' to good historical legacy. Surely well above the disasterous GWB presidency.

 

Bill Clinton's historical legacy will probably suffer some on account of his wife.

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Advisor

Obama

Another part of his legacy will be his role in blowing up the GOP coalition.

 

Whatever new grievances are now put forward, the basis of the amplified passions is that a lot of people just can't really truck with having a colored family living in the national shack. The dogwhistles have been tooting at fever pitch since 2008 and have gotten the volk stirred up greatly.

 

While I'm disappointed in some of Obama's actions as POTUS, you have to admit that he and his family have handled it all with remarkable grace and dignity.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: I can see the possibility of both parties fracturing

In all seriousness, are the Democrats delusional enough (I`m sorry) to think that the general voters will pull the lever for a 90% tax bracket, $18 trillion new spending  socialist?   Oh I know you can explain all that away to me here, but can the sheeple be "educated"  that "Bernie really wouldn`t be so bad"?   With Trump on my side, he`s kind of like uncle Charlie that`s a little rough around the edges, but "he`s smart and tough and has our best interest at heart....even though he`s a little different".  I would rather sell Trump than sell Bernie, Bernie has the same idelogy of countries that many of us recall having cold wars with for decades, Bernie would be a tough sell.

 

With Hillary not being the nominee, that`s possible because the FBI is looking into her and there is something going on with her health , sometimes she has to break out the "prizim glasses" whatever that is for...I think she has had a mild stroke or concussion, whatever not good for her. 

 

But Biden is waiting in the wings, he would be a much easier sell than Bernie.  Although Bernie wouldn`t have any problem from Soros or the Rothschilds, they would be more than happy if the Goyim would willingly shackle themselves with a socialist, it`s much easier butchering sheep that slaughter themselves.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Obama


@hardnox wrote:

Another part of his legacy will be his role in blowing up the GOP coalition.

 

Whatever new grievances are now put forward, the basis of the amplified passions is that a lot of people just can't really truck with having a colored family living in the national shack. The dogwhistles have been tooting at fever pitch since 2008 and have gotten the volk stirred up greatly.

 

While I'm disappointed in some of Obama's actions as POTUS, you have to admit that he and his family have handled it all with remarkable grace and dignity.

 

 


Funny Nox how the same people who say conservatives are racist are the same people who claim Dr. Ben Carson is a clown and say much worse than that about Clarence Thomas.