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sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

I doubt Biden is plus 12-16

nationally, if the election was held today.

I do think the 1-2 pts further that has driven the composites is real, though.

Like ‘16, given the EC advantage for Rs, DD needs to be within 3.

5 Replies
bruce MN
Advisor

Re: I doubt Biden is plus 12-16

NS’s model moves +2 in 6 hrs.

Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: I doubt Biden is plus 12-16

Here is one outlook for the election result.

Here’s the core math to remember on the way to a Trump “win.”

It’s a good estimate that somewhere close to 145 million Americans will vote in 2020, up from 133 million in 2016. The average of all the major national opinion polls suggests that this vote will break 50.3 per cent for Biden, 43.5 per cent for Trump; a margin of 10 million votes for Biden.

But in a presidential election, the crucial votes are cast not by the people, but by the states, through the Electoral College. In 2016, Trump won 2.9 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton, yet he won 306 electoral votes to Hillary Clinton’s 232. If in 2020 Trump can limit his Electoral College losses to his very most threatened states—Michigan and Arizona—he can still eke out a 279 to 259 win. (Trump also got a single electoral vote from Maine in 2016. If he loses that, too, he can still squeak to victory, or 278 to 260.)

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/washington/what-if-trump-wins/?utm_source=nl&utm_medium=em&utm_camp...

sdholloway56
Senior Advisor

Re: I doubt Biden is plus 12-16

PA, WI and even FLA looking like an increasingly heavy lift.

I think we're seeing the point where the objective isn't to win any more, it is to cheat in a couple places so as to get close enough to cheat the whole game.

RJG640v8
Advisor

Re: I doubt Biden is plus 12-16


@sdholloway56 wrote:

PA, WI and even FLA looking like an increasingly heavy lift.

I think we're seeing the point where the objective isn't to win any more, it is to cheat in a couple places so as to get close enough to cheat the whole game.

 

when a pubbie loses Rasmussen........

 

cheat .... daddy's objective all along.  It worked last time with his buddy Puter, why not do it again.

 

             Whipped Dog                                                   In charge and happy                      

Trump's comments alongside Putin criticized by both parties as  'disgraceful,' 'treasonous' and 'shameful'


 

jennys_mn
Veteran Advisor

Re: I doubt Biden is plus 12-16


@sdholloway56 wrote:

PA, WI and even FLA looking like an increasingly heavy lift.

I think we're seeing the point where the objective isn't to win any more, it is to cheat in a couple places so as to get close enough to cheat the whole game.



Yes, you are 100% correct there.   It has worked in Florida and Ohio in the past.   What’s going to be the state to get hit with the sucker punch this year?   We won’t know, until the election is over, and Republicans see a target they think they can attack.

 Republicans can’t win an election, without lying or fear mongering.... or voter suppression.

Jen