I may have underestimated the net MAGA cull

[sdholloway56]

While the first wave was fierce, there had only been about 100k deaths by the time it ebbed.

That part was disproportionately urban people of color, but increasingly it got whiter and more rural.

If there will have been 1.2-1.4M excess deaths by the 2022 midterms, could be upwards of 500k net MAGAs. Keep in mind, as Sam alsways reminds us, the victims have been highly disproportionately older, where voting tendencies lean heavily R.

Still, when you've figued out that you don't have to get the most votes in order to win, may not be a problem.

[sdholloway56]

Since there were around 900k excess deaths by the end of June and there have been about 130k official Covid deaths since, we’re probably at around 1.1M excess deaths. 

1.2M by a year from now is pretty optimistic- probably closer to the upper estimate.

Although I am highly hopeful that we’re on the downslope of the last big wave.

[sdholloway56]

While as I've noted, the cull probably won't have much political impact in ruby red districts and states, in FLA it might.

DeSantis beat a black guy who was rumored to be bisexual by 42K votes in '18.

He's probably killed about half that margin.