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hardnox
Advisor

I think the global elite

just made their fatal mistake.

 

In the wake up Brexit, should have let markets puke and scare the daylights out of the plebes.*

 

Instead, probably overt intervention in key markets but nevertheless the biggest coordinated huff n' puff by central banks and national leaders leaves the impression of No Big Deal.

 

Part of that is just the momentum of the reigning interventioist phiosophy, but I think there's more. There simply isn't enough slack left in the system to make then confident that they can let things slip much. Continental banks were/are teetering, China is more than likely more vulnerable than assumed. Japan, yeah, Japan. The US is thought to be the healthiest of the bunch but is in no position to pull the wagon for the rest of the world and is also vulnerable to global contagion.

 

Sooo...the post Crisis interventionist regime won't be immediate undone by The Market, it will be killed by a hybrid political/financial crisis that will run for years and by nature will be highly unpredictable.

 

Even in the most likely case where Clinton wins with some modest coattails and the elite breathes a sigh of relief, the trajectory doesn't really change, maybe the slope stretches out a bit farther. If Trump wins I think things probably come apart quicker. Hard telling which is better in the long run.

2 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: I think the global elite

Well, alot of things to consider like, how do we know the actual elite doesn`t want the UK to cut strings with the EU?   I would submit that if the real elite wasn`t okay with leaving, they would`ve never allowed the people to vote in the first place..look Soros betted and made a killing off of Brexit, he wasn`t caught on the wrong side.

 

If Britain got "punished" how would that effect the royal family and their holdings?  Those "billionaires" we watch on the Forbes 400 List are nothing, the Rothschilds and Royal family are Trillionaires.

 

And there`s the possiblity that "the market is bigger than the elite", look at how the economic system is setup, for Henny Penny saying "the sky is falling!" there are just as many seeing it as a "buying opportunity" and Britain did just fine for the 17 centuries BEFORE the establishment of a EU.  A bigshot moneyman on the radio was saying "this is no big deal, it`ll move slow, mostly about airport spaces and such".

bruce MN
Advisor

Re: I think the global elite

Would you consider jumping off the water tower if somebody told you that you sound almost exactly like Paul Krugman on this?