IHME model

[sdholloway56]

has been fairly good and has total US deaths hitting 470K by 3/1/21 but heading into decline from there. Might hold under 600K before it is brought under control in the Summer.

That's substantially more than the total American casualties in the Civil War (there was also a substantial number of enemy losses) or WWII.

[r3020]

Total US population in 1861- 31.5 million

Total US population in 2019- 328,000,000

[sdholloway56]

divide the black part by 3/5ths.

[r3020]

Under orders from dem Robert Byrd?

[rickgthf]

What makes it so terribly sad and tragic is that the better part of those deaths was, are, and will be entirely unnecessary.  Whether it be from the complete failure of leadership by trump or all the people who just wouldn't take it seriously.  I don't know how many times I've heard people say, "I wish I'd taken it more seriously".

[jennys_mn]

The Trump virus is simply out of control.   There is no longer a chance to do contact tracing.   We are way beyond that.   

Are the vaccines going to work “as advertised”?   Maybe.   And is there a plan, if they don’t?   Personally, I don’t think there is a plan “B”.   The world’s hopes, are hanging on there actually being a “cure”.

Jen

[rickgthf]

That 470,000 is just the midrange of the current projection (430,000 to 5o0,000) and depends entirely on people's behavior.  If people relax their precautions and mitigation measures it could easily go to 650,000 (550,000 to 780,000).

How much faith do you have that people can actually be disciplined enough, long enough to keep it down until enough vaccine is available.

[bruce MN]

Tough realizing that over the next couple of weeks that as we discuss this health care workers, administrators and public health officials are working feverishly in the fore coming shadow of the Thanksgiving time bomb.

[rickgthf]

Funny how that is,  the US's share of the first available Pfizer vaccine is now down to only enough for 6.5 million people (2x).  That's barely enough to vaccine the 5 million doctors and nurses & 1.3 million nursing home residents.

Don't count on that vaccine being available to the common folk anytime soon.

[rickgthf]

That Thanksgiving time bomb, on average 5 days from exposure to symptoms, then 17-21 days from hospitalization to death.  Tomorrow we'll start seeing hospitalizations increase, by the third week in Dec. we'll see deaths surge.  There are people walking around right now who killed themselves last week.

As for Covid hospitalizations, they were 92,000 on Sat. up from 70,000 just few days ago.