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Senior Contributor

If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

about the best you could hope for, we don't have enough workers to fill them.

Theory says you'd get enough workers* if you paid them enough. The Market, you know. So far theory has proven to be questionable though, since wages haven't lifted off as employment continues to firm.

Don't know what you get if you deport 10 million illegals in addition, 3-5 million of whom are presumably working at something. A lot of rich people with uncut grass and untended kids, I guess. And maybe some hogs and beeves rotting on the rail.

*presumably off the sidelines where they're underemployed or voluntarily unemployed.

 

14 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS

About 4 million manufacturing jobs lost since the 1980 (see, I told you it was Jimmy Carter's fault) but constant dollar output has more than doubled.

Ergo, you might assume that the best you're going to get is 1.5-2 million jobs, given the same level of productivity. New plants that would be reshored would probably be more productive than that, though.

Like everything today, would be really good for employment of robotics engineers and technicians. Probably heavily Asian.

There was some real injustice done in either (a) liberalizing trade or (b) failing to make policy compensations when we did.

But you guys are shooting about 5 feet behind the duck here.

 

Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

BTW, an argument can be made that we don't really want very low value manufacturing jobs like stamping out plastic crap for Dollar General. And if we did want to make that stuff we're going to have to do it with robots because there's nto enough value added for the market to pay for the cost of people getting paid anything decent.

Also somewhat true of the global electronics supply chain (we were never going assemble iphones in WI, no matter what Don and Scott said when they were holding up the state). The $10 for Foxconn to assemble iphones in China is a bargain- and almost certainly ends up distorting the trade stats. 90% of the value of an iphone is intellectual proerty, which goes to stockholders and very well paid employees.

The globalization of the auto supply chain was probably the biggest killer although Japan* was really the driving factor in that.

We could have always excluded Japan from our market, I guess. But Detroit would still be making crap cars, too.

*Fear of Japan really drove a lot of this- remember when smart guys were putting up charts to show how they'd own the whole world in 10 years?

 

Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

The truth is coming out now. You are lazy and want someone else to be your slave and do all the work.

All hail DDGFS. King of the special people of this country.

Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

At least I attempt to find some facts instead of relying on my hurt feelings.

 

Honored Advisor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

Look there`s a 3rd, sensible choice beyond "keep the baby in dirty bathwater or throw the baby out with the bathwater"..see we can take the baby out of the wash basin, dry him off and THEN throw out the dirty bathwater.

As long as China is going we probably will run a trade deficit with them, that`s a fact. However, at $400 Billion there is a lot of room for it to come down.  For example the US is China`s biggest customer and we run the biggest deficit..therefore why would China even look at a South American bean?????

I know a Bigshot farmer that also has a John Deere dealership.  For some reason he hates Pioneer corn, yet he buys dozens of pro boxes of seed from the local Pioneer dealer.  Why? Because the local Pioneer dealer buys tractors, combines and planters from his machinery dealership.   

Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

BTW, the total trade deficit is about 2.5% of GDP*.  And probably overstated to some extent.

Had adults been running things and we'd prioritized- China would have come up first- and we would have attempted to put together a coalition with the other developed and developing countries who also have a beef.

And we could have forced some change in behavior and possibly some positive agricultural trade outcomes. We certainly wouldn't be engaged in a silly bilateral trade war, that will not be particularly effective.

*But 110% has fallen on the shoulders of the Good People.

 

Honored Advisor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

Half or more of the total trade deficit is with the one country China, if they are reasonable, we shouldn`t require other countries` help.  The rest of the world is quietly on our side against China, because they get hosed too.  Xi`s only card is the 2020 election and even that isn`t a slam dunk, depending on which Democrat "defeats Trump" , Democrats that are true to their roots actually support what Trump is doing on trade although taboo to vocalize anything positive about the President.

And also "good people" aren`t in the Democrat`s constituency, so perhaps a Democrat just might put trade on the backburner...also what will a "lameduck Trump" do November 4, 2020 though Janurary 20, 2021?   c`mon Xi pick a door!   Smiley Happy

Senior Contributor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

What the guys at the Chat 'n Chew think doesn't have a lot of bearing on how the real world works.

But regardless, forever and ever it'll be "well I told 'em.........."

That's kinda funny how you think they'll fold if Trump is reelected. And then when they don't.......

"Well, I voted for Pat Buchanan anyway".

 

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: If we "brought back" those 3-4 million lost jobs

Can China continue without a customer that runs $100s of Billions in trade surpluses for them?   Seems to me, cutting the US trade deficit in half or at least giving cutting it below what it was under Obama to give Trump a "win" would STILL allow them to continue laughing all the way to the bank.   It`s what Sun Tzu would do, Xi apparently likes juggling sticks of nitroglycerin...I mean, what "reward" is he expecting?  That we run $1 Trillion trade deficits with them?